{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e10a07d-0764-422d-85ef-8b0459a40c2b", "symbol": "AALR3", "name": "Allian\u00e7a Sa\u00fade e Participa\u00e7\u00f5es S.A.", "exchange": "SAO", "country": "BR", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^BVSP", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -43.889, "architecture_energy": 22.551, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 69.271, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 45.96, "rotation_up": 25.52, "upward_expansion": 18.06, "deceleration": 45.15, "rotation_down": 29.35, "downward_expansion": 54.39 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.202, 3.178182, 3.194524, 3.370129 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 3.04, "trend_reference": 3.656, "distance_from_trend": -0.16849, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.033397, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.62158, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -35.193004, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.26747, "excess_performance": -0.210422, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.16849, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.124381, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.62158, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.059732, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.35193, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.122944, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.26747, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.234584, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 290900, "relative_activity": 1.367043, "balance": 1.234584, "dry_up": 1.295143, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.112601, "annualized_volatility": 0.700758, "from_high_reference": -0.554252, "from_low_reference": 0.288136 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.656, "fair_value_reference": 8.033397, "structural_low": 2.36, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.025724, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": 0.018793, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.379408, "worst_return": -0.275416, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.060458, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.133019, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.532051, "worst_return": -0.440347, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.089796, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.289396, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.930036, "worst_return": -0.468547, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-12-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.102459, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.291423, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.258134, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.004766, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015748, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Established", 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3.199455, 3.230286, 3.445183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.25, "volume": 361500, "typical_volume": 216095.0, "trend": 3.703333, "fair_value": 8.159744, "relative_strength": -33.817555, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -31.088347, "energy": 18.254671, "activity_lines": [ 3.28, 3.207455, 3.220143, 3.412925 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.04, "volume": 290900, "typical_volume": 212795.0, "trend": 3.656, "fair_value": 8.033397, "relative_strength": -35.193004, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.8893, "energy": 22.551128, "activity_lines": [ 3.202, 3.178182, 3.194524, 3.370129 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }