{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e15df11-8573-406e-8e77-7f0fd83f732b", "symbol": "FDUS", "name": "Fidus Investment Corp", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 90.512, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 73.427, "architecture_energy": 72.336, "architecture_maturity": 21.384, "architecture_confidence": 77.21, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 17.08, "rotation_up": 69.11, "upward_expansion": 88.62, "deceleration": 47.55, "rotation_down": 14.37, "downward_expansion": 15.29 }, "activity_lines": [ 19.991333, 19.660276, 19.084988, 18.635231 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 20.35, "trend_reference": 18.213479, "distance_from_trend": 0.117304, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 16.769775, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.213493, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.913194, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.149243, "excess_performance": -0.038211, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117304, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.021145, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.213493, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039552, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.029132, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.094201, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.149243, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.447428, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 2524852, "relative_activity": 1.641085, "balance": 3.447428, "dry_up": 1.069734, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041337, "annualized_volatility": 0.209175, "from_high_reference": -0.020693, "from_low_reference": 0.247433 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 18.213479, "fair_value_reference": 16.769775, "structural_low": 16.313507, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 39, "median_return": 0.012266, "positive_rate": 0.641026, "directional_follow_through": 0.641026, "median_excess_return": 0.007402, "regime_survival": 0.74359, "best_return": 0.084285, "worst_return": -0.09393, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.043067, "positive_rate": 0.785714, "directional_follow_through": 0.785714, "median_excess_return": 0.037358, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.146457, "worst_return": -0.073077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.091718, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.006504, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.116883, "worst_return": -0.131874, "sufficient": true }, { 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"rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.151771, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-06", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050899, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001414, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.027838, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-12-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.020341, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-01-02", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.034818, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.07273, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-06-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-06-12", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.031609, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.052768, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 13.392095, "volume": 977373, "typical_volume": 567084.0, "trend": 13.104548, "fair_value": 10.440282, "relative_strength": -8.868007, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": 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81.824196, "energy": 77.402004, "activity_lines": [ 19.307639, 18.834989, 18.402266, 18.148403 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 20.36, "volume": 1612581, "typical_volume": 1565086.8, "trend": 18.069728, "fair_value": 16.659866, "relative_strength": 0.004412, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.009584, "energy": 85.015529, "activity_lines": [ 19.769333, 19.148763, 18.6336, 18.301888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 19.41, "volume": 1335316, "typical_volume": 1553127.8, "trend": 18.108333, "fair_value": 16.691927, "relative_strength": -2.771109, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.115, "energy": 77.136731, "activity_lines": [ 19.770667, 19.26768, 18.756684, 18.388357 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 19.74, "volume": 1110507, "typical_volume": 1541012.85, "trend": 18.155121, "fair_value": 16.727611, "relative_strength": -1.359495, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.18258, "energy": 72.816433, "activity_lines": [ 19.811333, 19.424153, 18.899288, 18.493626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 20.35, "volume": 2524852, "typical_volume": 1538526.0, "trend": 18.213479, "fair_value": 16.769775, "relative_strength": -2.913194, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.427116, "energy": 72.33607, "activity_lines": [ 19.991333, 19.660276, 19.084988, 18.635231 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }