{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e171074-2dca-4195-be9d-f10ab5277626", "symbol": "CGGR", "name": "CAPITAL GROUP GROWTH ETF SHARE CLASS", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 58.574, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 44.214, "architecture_energy": 22.882, "architecture_maturity": 47.227, "architecture_confidence": 80.277, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.8, "rotation_up": 32.33, "upward_expansion": 58.37, "deceleration": 84.6, "rotation_down": 34.38, "downward_expansion": 22.04 }, "activity_lines": [ 45.668, 45.839502, 45.747629, 45.035349 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 46.96, "trend_reference": 44.366984, "distance_from_trend": 0.058445, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.66726, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.280707, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -5.116119, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.087037, "excess_performance": -0.038588, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.058445, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013478, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.280707, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.044059, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.051161, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.016919, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.087037, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.701165, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 14646855, "relative_activity": 1.103175, "balance": 1.701165, "dry_up": 0.995985, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.039418, "annualized_volatility": 0.204668, "from_high_reference": -0.021506, "from_low_reference": 0.218158 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 44.366984, "fair_value_reference": 36.66726, "structural_low": 38.55, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.034805, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": 0.004332, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.132479, "worst_return": -0.044898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.043275, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.024549, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.050096, "worst_return": -0.156623, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.151079, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.016246, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.233054, "worst_return": 0.072727, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full 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expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.134761, "energy": 44.661414, "activity_lines": [ 46.55595, 46.392638, 45.405001, 44.761535 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 45.34, "volume": 12765114, "typical_volume": 14780634.2, "trend": 44.334317, "fair_value": 36.28515, "relative_strength": -5.209478, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 43.202763, "energy": 28.358685, "activity_lines": [ 46.197976, 46.217446, 45.503765, 44.8284 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 44.36, "volume": 12179277, "typical_volume": 14079460.2, "trend": 44.308984, "fair_value": 36.402903, "relative_strength": -6.541261, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.055963, "energy": 16.539011, "activity_lines": [ 45.543563, 45.88013, 45.498863, 44.830057 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 44.85, "volume": 13303528, "typical_volume": 13564449.65, "trend": 44.318984, "fair_value": 36.527682, "relative_strength": -6.353248, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 27.506851, "energy": 17.368715, "activity_lines": [ 45.224, 45.657241, 45.53077, 44.864961 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 46.96, "volume": 14646855, "typical_volume": 13276995.15, "trend": 44.366984, "fair_value": 36.66726, "relative_strength": -5.116119, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.21395, "energy": 22.882382, "activity_lines": [ 45.668, 45.839502, 45.747629, 45.035349 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }