{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e176302-0569-4634-b221-8db24b46d7ad", "symbol": "XCHA", "name": "Xtrackers CSI300 Swap UCITS ETF 1C", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 48.474, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 26.066, "architecture_energy": 24.422, "architecture_maturity": 64.115, "architecture_confidence": 76.184, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.86, "rotation_up": 23.83, "upward_expansion": 56.58, "deceleration": 88.33, "rotation_down": 41.44, "downward_expansion": 22.58 }, "activity_lines": [ 18.334534, 18.531346, 18.487076, 18.22591 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 18.568001, "trend_reference": 17.872133, "distance_from_trend": 0.038936, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 14.358141, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.293204, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.875702, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.098308, "excess_performance": -0.072583, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.038936, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.040437, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.293204, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.025978, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.068757, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.085173, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.098308, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.980893, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 211061, "relative_activity": 1.026745, "balance": 0.980893, "dry_up": 1.30311, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.030756, "annualized_volatility": 0.153753, "from_high_reference": -0.037229, "from_low_reference": 0.298099 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 17.872133, "fair_value_reference": 14.358141, "structural_low": 16.466, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.0258, "positive_rate": 0.083333, "directional_follow_through": 0.083333, "median_excess_return": -0.010103, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.050058, "worst_return": -0.052122, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.097479, "positive_rate": 0.166667, "directional_follow_through": 0.166667, "median_excess_return": -0.054611, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.069226, "worst_return": -0.139305, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.053054, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.147528, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.159194, "worst_return": -0.117878, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, 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"Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.050058, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.013063, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-21", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.088435, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.067205, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.009242, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.11468, 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18.6232, 18.689854, 18.418619, 18.113363 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 18.478001, "volume": 414107, "typical_volume": 234616.35, "trend": 17.794133, "fair_value": 14.293705, "relative_strength": -3.91639, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 37.585365, "energy": 22.986015, "activity_lines": [ 18.502267, 18.655273, 18.456867, 18.161656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 18.056, "volume": 138155, "typical_volume": 231226.45, "trend": 17.833933, "fair_value": 14.322256, "relative_strength": -6.748091, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.084414, "energy": 23.335173, "activity_lines": [ 18.294534, 18.543818, 18.448705, 18.17855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 18.568001, "volume": 211061, "typical_volume": 205563.25, "trend": 17.872133, "fair_value": 14.358141, "relative_strength": -6.875702, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 26.066157, "energy": 24.421977, "activity_lines": [ 18.334534, 18.531346, 18.487076, 18.22591 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }