{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e360639-1697-47b5-a142-685de35b0146", "symbol": "9069", "name": "CHINAAMC Hang Seng Biotech ETF", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 66.857, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 15.271, "architecture_energy": 25.879, "architecture_maturity": 72.471, "architecture_confidence": 57.925, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.49, "rotation_up": 46.26, "upward_expansion": 33.87, "deceleration": 46.37, "rotation_down": 14.22, "downward_expansion": 42.2 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.842667, 1.776945, 1.765486, 1.796968 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 1.946, "trend_reference": 1.852667, "distance_from_trend": 0.050378, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.48261, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.31255, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.177339, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.008155, "excess_performance": 0.025426, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.050378, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.045854, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.31255, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017102, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.001773, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.069363, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.008155, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.678448, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 272400, "relative_activity": 0.549642, "balance": 0.678448, "dry_up": 1.509902, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.058424, "annualized_volatility": 0.357516, "from_high_reference": -0.177504, "from_low_reference": 0.275229 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.852667, "fair_value_reference": 1.48261, "structural_low": 1.526, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": -0.002485, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.005534, "regime_survival": 0.818182, "best_return": 0.211454, "worst_return": -0.209886, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.018091, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.061445, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.461617, "worst_return": -0.193679, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.050958, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.05181, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.281014, "worst_return": -0.208266, "sufficient": 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"relative_strength": -0.063197, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.879948, "energy": 62.254511, "activity_lines": [ 1.638133, 1.664909, 1.755086, 1.811044 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 1.804, "volume": 1707100, "typical_volume": 480775.0, "trend": 1.8688, "fair_value": 1.471193, "relative_strength": -2.732612, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -48.310115, "energy": 37.380749, "activity_lines": [ 1.7016, 1.681927, 1.754029, 1.806499 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 1.744, "volume": 1357300, "typical_volume": 537760.0, "trend": 1.862333, "fair_value": 1.473667, "relative_strength": -7.213176, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -38.719167, "energy": 26.349673, "activity_lines": [ 1.730933, 1.6896, 1.748457, 1.798447 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.822, "volume": 617700, "typical_volume": 477990.0, "trend": 1.859733, "fair_value": 1.476034, "relative_strength": -4.457666, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.575148, "energy": 29.816741, "activity_lines": [ 1.775467, 1.714, 1.751314, 1.795845 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.788, "volume": 745800, "typical_volume": 484910.0, "trend": 1.856867, "fair_value": 1.47855, "relative_strength": -9.228584, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -22.460856, "energy": 26.324625, "activity_lines": [ 1.790533, 1.731418, 1.750848, 1.791217 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.946, "volume": 272400, "typical_volume": 495595.0, "trend": 1.852667, "fair_value": 1.48261, "relative_strength": -0.177339, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 15.271159, "energy": 25.878736, "activity_lines": [ 1.842667, 1.776945, 1.765486, 1.796968 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }