{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e3830a0-a660-4535-9f6d-ab9c2faab5bb", "symbol": "EASTSILK", "name": "Eastern Silk Industries Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 57.516, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -0.748, "architecture_energy": 17.088, "architecture_maturity": 87.748, "architecture_confidence": 54.486, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 53.48, "rotation_up": 42.13, "upward_expansion": 23.09, "deceleration": 41.31, "rotation_down": 17.61, "downward_expansion": 57.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.518, 54.253818, 54.692285, 57.225742 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 63.0, "trend_reference": 60.907667, "distance_from_trend": 0.034353, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 21.502372, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.929909, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.069196, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.112551, "excess_performance": -0.068842, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.034353, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.133291, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.929909, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.544079, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.050692, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.251675, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.112551, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.822398, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 8017, "relative_activity": 0.836808, "balance": 0.822398, "dry_up": 0.478266, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.082491, "annualized_volatility": 0.497823, "from_high_reference": -0.365239, "from_low_reference": 34.0 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 60.907667, "fair_value_reference": 21.502372, "structural_low": 46.27, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.039474, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": -0.035233, "regime_survival": 0.857143, "best_return": 17.744446, "worst_return": -0.303571, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.118207, "positive_rate": 0.375, "directional_follow_through": 0.625, "median_excess_return": -0.141425, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 25.35, "worst_return": -0.272727, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.104743, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.181426, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 44.888888, "worst_return": -0.386667, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.399605, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.566207, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": -0.217391, "worst_return": -0.581818, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-02-10", "end": "2023-09-08", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.375, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-09-15", "end": "2023-10-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-10-20", "end": "2023-11-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.105263, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2023-11-17", "end": "2023-12-08", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.25, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-15", "end": "2024-02-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.111111, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-03-01", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.162791, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-04-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-04-19", "end": "2024-05-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.549494, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.157356, 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{ "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.189999, "volume": 5359, "typical_volume": 9119.05, "trend": 62.057667, "fair_value": 20.740513, "relative_strength": -1.053483, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.851154, "energy": 46.461384, "activity_lines": [ 50.735333, 50.792909, 53.845666, 57.270924 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 59.650002, "volume": 4016, "typical_volume": 9285.7, "trend": 61.292667, "fair_value": 21.110385, "relative_strength": 2.25186, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.335832, "energy": 18.789788, "activity_lines": [ 53.927334, 52.244909, 54.084285, 57.115591 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 63.0, "volume": 8017, "typical_volume": 9580.45, "trend": 60.907667, "fair_value": 21.502372, "relative_strength": 5.069196, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -0.748436, "energy": 17.088373, "activity_lines": [ 57.518, 54.253818, 54.692285, 57.225742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }