{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e39cb5b-2023-4919-a70e-7fa2a2243653", "symbol": "301319", "name": "Shenzhen Vital New Material Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 22.173, "architecture_energy": 28.349, "architecture_maturity": 79.0, "architecture_confidence": 95.078, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.39, "rotation_up": 17.38, "upward_expansion": 53.24, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 44.09, "downward_expansion": 23.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 102.944665, 121.767999, 112.999332, 95.562636 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 119.629997, "trend_reference": 74.263952, "distance_from_trend": 0.610876, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 28.270261, "distance_from_fair_value": 3.231655, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 120.908644, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 2.602722, "excess_performance": 2.595322, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.610876, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.827717, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 3.231655, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.897791, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 1.209086, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.310807, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 2.602722, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.488076, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 84098684, "relative_activity": 1.908157, "balance": 1.488076, "dry_up": 1.418212, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.281613, "annualized_volatility": 1.193246, "from_high_reference": -0.456227, "from_low_reference": 5.507752 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.263952, "fair_value_reference": 28.270261, "structural_low": 26.257069, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.377968, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.374767, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.644386, "worst_return": -0.091128, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 1.031869, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.945331, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.843146, "worst_return": 0.220592, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 2.470322, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 2.290142, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.470322, "worst_return": 2.470322, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, 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"green", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.048691, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.077507, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 0.797543, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.377968, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058043, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.494537, 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102.79435, 83.357161 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 131.300003, "volume": 61567307, "typical_volume": 35296654.6, "trend": 65.826175, "fair_value": 26.188214, "relative_strength": 158.507322, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.529424, "energy": 66.955694, "activity_lines": [ 158.958666, 143.716748, 108.037412, 87.799654 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 99.139999, "volume": 50386476, "typical_volume": 37179509.7, "trend": 67.949685, "fair_value": 26.70756, "relative_strength": 107.926734, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.609433, "energy": 51.115229, "activity_lines": [ 138.493999, 138.883863, 109.741843, 89.948933 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 90.519997, "volume": 60980927, "typical_volume": 38944506.55, "trend": 69.864057, "fair_value": 27.177414, "relative_strength": 84.052729, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.439469, "energy": 29.100338, "activity_lines": [ 117.657332, 131.861817, 110.310009, 91.405083 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 86.220001, "volume": 54554769, "typical_volume": 40630445.85, "trend": 71.543868, "fair_value": 27.608602, "relative_strength": 73.54588, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 19.736057, "energy": 30.627016, "activity_lines": [ 100.706666, 123.750181, 110.193765, 92.460305 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 119.629997, "volume": 84098684, "typical_volume": 44073260.35, "trend": 74.263952, "fair_value": 28.270261, "relative_strength": 120.908644, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 22.172995, "energy": 28.349384, "activity_lines": [ 102.944665, 121.767999, 112.999332, 95.562636 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }