{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e401448-dbe4-48b6-ab76-170a5a47c892", "symbol": "URJA", "name": "Urja Global Limited", "exchange": "NSI", "country": "IN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^NSEI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -25.722, "architecture_energy": 48.733, "architecture_maturity": 9.051, "architecture_confidence": 76.419, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 32.37, "rotation_up": 16.64, "upward_expansion": 24.67, "deceleration": 51.04, "rotation_down": 65.81, "downward_expansion": 54.34 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.426667, 9.585636, 10.013, 9.992538 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 9.84, "trend_reference": 9.971, "distance_from_trend": -0.013138, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 15.107051, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.348649, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.359088, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.01992, "excess_performance": 0.023789, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.013138, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.060993, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.348649, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093554, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.103591, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048923, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.01992, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.551144, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9944283, "relative_activity": 1.547832, "balance": 0.551144, "dry_up": 0.761935, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.060272, "annualized_volatility": 0.323889, "from_high_reference": -0.319031, "from_low_reference": 0.23 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.971, "fair_value_reference": 15.107051, "structural_low": 8.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.011765, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.031783, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 0.206349, "worst_return": -0.154676, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.078676, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.126849, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.365079, "worst_return": -0.118705, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.226619, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.307604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.111111, "worst_return": -0.279412, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.222166, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011772, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.016223, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.09173, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.026471, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-19", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.075431, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": 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"direction": -41.662804, "energy": 52.486846, "activity_lines": [ 9.615333, 9.971091, 10.213714, 10.126688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.22, "volume": 3221599, "typical_volume": 6357927.2, "trend": 10.082, "fair_value": 15.116795, "relative_strength": -14.40682, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -42.663887, "energy": 58.819497, "activity_lines": [ 9.439333, 9.782364, 10.132381, 10.067247 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.09, "volume": 2994331, "typical_volume": 6206325.9, "trend": 10.006, "fair_value": 15.109038, "relative_strength": -17.0797, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.744543, "energy": 69.42024, "activity_lines": [ 9.28, 9.601273, 10.037143, 10.003247 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 9.84, "volume": 9944283, "typical_volume": 6424652.0, "trend": 9.971, "fair_value": 15.107051, "relative_strength": -10.359088, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -25.721783, "energy": 48.732977, "activity_lines": [ 9.426667, 9.585636, 10.013, 9.992538 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }