{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7e44c23a-8829-4775-9894-3a247aedbc29",
    "symbol": "RCT",
    "name": "Reef Casino Trust",
    "exchange": "ASX",
    "country": "AU",
    "assetType": "equity"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^AXJO",
    "stage": 2,
    "stage_name": "Advancing",
    "phase": "2a",
    "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance",
    "transition": "stage_2_healthy",
    "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 80.304,
    "architecture_energy": 92.452,
    "architecture_maturity": 13.869,
    "architecture_confidence": 76.897,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 10.95,
        "rotation_up": 86.71,
        "upward_expansion": 99.98,
        "deceleration": 39.0,
        "rotation_down": 8.07,
        "downward_expansion": 21.98
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        3.813667,
        3.713715,
        3.586112,
        3.545275
      ],
      "activity_state": "Wide",
      "activity_direction": "Expanding",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 1.0
    },
    "latest_close": 3.855,
    "trend_reference": 3.509764,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.098364,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 3.004005,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283287,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": 4.539348,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": 0.117391,
    "excess_performance": 0.053686,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.098364,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017497,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.283287,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.137211,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.045393,
        "read": "Leading"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.055753,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.117391,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 22.981188,
        "read": "Demand-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 94510,
      "relative_activity": 3.108815,
      "balance": 22.981188,
      "dry_up": 4.022578,
      "accumulation_observations": 3,
      "distribution_observations": 0
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.023977,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.159661,
      "from_high_reference": -0.001295,
      "from_low_reference": 0.20776
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 3.509764,
      "fair_value_reference": 3.004005,
      "structural_low": 3.3,
      "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 28,
        "median_return": -0.002725,
        "positive_rate": 0.464286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.464286,
        "median_excess_return": -0.000941,
        "regime_survival": 0.678571,
        "best_return": 0.065939,
        "worst_return": -0.112179,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 12,
        "median_return": 0.002583,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": 0.008434,
        "regime_survival": 0.666667,
        "best_return": 0.130137,
        "worst_return": -0.074081,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 7,
        "median_return": 0.103078,
        "positive_rate": 0.714286,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.714286,
        "median_excess_return": 0.059457,
        "regime_survival": 0.571429,
        "best_return": 0.197486,
        "worst_return": -0.026273,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": 0.12748,
        "positive_rate": 1.0,
        "directional_follow_through": 1.0,
        "median_excess_return": 0.072011,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.22041,
        "worst_return": 0.003024,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
        "start": "2024-03-01",
        "end": "2024-03-22",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
        "start": "2024-03-29",
        "end": "2024-06-21",
        "tenure": "Established",
        "return": 0.0,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
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        "end": "2025-01-03",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "end": "2025-04-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
        "start": "2025-05-02",
        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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        "active": false
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      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2026-01-23",
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        "return": -0.014044,
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        "activity_lines": [
          3.432667,
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          3.47114,
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-01",
        "close": 3.38,
        "volume": 28587,
        "typical_volume": 12020.7,
        "trend": 3.471015,
        "fair_value": 2.918365,
        "relative_strength": 0.080652,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "balance",
        "modifier": "Upper balance after advance",
        "gate": "down",
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        "energy": 46.337202,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.412667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-08",
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        "typical_volume": 11665.2,
        "trend": 3.464145,
        "fair_value": 2.923018,
        "relative_strength": -1.035917,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "energy": 63.33335,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-15",
        "close": 3.31,
        "volume": 12024,
        "typical_volume": 11845.3,
        "trend": 3.458498,
        "fair_value": 2.926943,
        "relative_strength": -0.892539,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -72.811341,
        "energy": 72.435964,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.352667,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-22",
        "close": 3.4,
        "volume": 1685,
        "typical_volume": 11197.75,
        "trend": 3.455212,
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        "relative_strength": 1.318612,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -59.732273,
        "energy": 60.235562,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-05-29",
        "close": 3.314971,
        "volume": 200,
        "typical_volume": 11011.1,
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        "energy": 63.323633,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.345657,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-05",
        "close": 3.432662,
        "volume": 164,
        "typical_volume": 10932.0,
        "trend": 3.447213,
        "fair_value": 2.944358,
        "relative_strength": 2.206469,
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        "modifier": "Early contraction",
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        "direction": -55.205916,
        "energy": 35.693745,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-12",
        "close": 3.52093,
        "volume": 3490,
        "typical_volume": 10996.1,
        "trend": 3.447958,
        "fair_value": 2.950945,
        "relative_strength": 2.402319,
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        "regime": "downward_expansion",
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        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-19",
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        "volume": 0,
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        "fair_value": 2.956705,
        "relative_strength": -0.646776,
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        "direction": -26.166795,
        "energy": 21.05609,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-06-26",
        "close": 3.4817,
        "volume": 21,
        "typical_volume": 10663.1,
        "trend": 3.45031,
        "fair_value": 2.96227,
        "relative_strength": 1.273962,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early contraction",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 9.444361,
        "energy": 23.335028,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.458816,
          3.42267,
          3.425029,
          3.438992
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-03",
        "close": 3.56,
        "volume": 0,
        "typical_volume": 9796.85,
        "trend": 3.453955,
        "fair_value": 2.968337,
        "relative_strength": 2.320385,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Structural repair",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 36.812803,
        "energy": 44.625809,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.499954,
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          3.435682,
          3.446068
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-10",
        "close": 3.72,
        "volume": 13364,
        "typical_volume": 10417.9,
        "trend": 3.465169,
        "fair_value": 2.975214,
        "relative_strength": 6.940602,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "mixed",
        "direction": 53.625185,
        "energy": 71.042894,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.57809,
          3.5062,
          3.46162,
          3.463233
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-17",
        "close": 3.645,
        "volume": 9464,
        "typical_volume": 10773.25,
        "trend": 3.471647,
        "fair_value": 2.981177,
        "relative_strength": 4.680192,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "modifier": "Value reclamation",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 76.513255,
        "energy": 85.06437,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.612071,
          3.541238,
          3.479749,
          3.474835
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
        "close": 3.84,
        "volume": 251948,
        "typical_volume": 20659.8,
        "trend": 3.485264,
        "fair_value": 2.988499,
        "relative_strength": 10.268329,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 92.367409,
        "energy": 95.154479,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.70278,
          3.606367,
          3.516045,
          3.498599
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 3.85,
        "volume": 133234,
        "typical_volume": 26454.75,
        "trend": 3.496264,
        "fair_value": 2.996533,
        "relative_strength": 7.883229,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 87.614813,
        "energy": 95.036281,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.769667,
          3.663677,
          3.551674,
          3.522131
        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 3.855,
        "volume": 94510,
        "typical_volume": 30400.65,
        "trend": 3.509764,
        "fair_value": 3.004005,
        "relative_strength": 4.539348,
        "stage": 2,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Early expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 80.303874,
        "energy": 92.452091,
        "activity_lines": [
          3.813667,
          3.713715,
          3.586112,
          3.545275
        ]
      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}