{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e4bdba4-ad91-43ae-9664-b803bb6ac3e5", "symbol": "SPI", "name": "Saha Pathana Inter-Holding Public Company Limited", "exchange": "SET", "country": "TH", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^SET.BK", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 69.15, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Re-accelerating", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 51.309, "architecture_energy": 33.66, "architecture_maturity": 21.596, "architecture_confidence": 59.623, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 30.57, "rotation_up": 43.62, "upward_expansion": 74.54, "deceleration": 62.13, "rotation_down": 24.53, "downward_expansion": 3.54 }, "activity_lines": [ 32.883333, 32.836364, 32.678208, 32.021442 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 32.25, "trend_reference": 30.939135, "distance_from_trend": 0.042369, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 29.144162, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.106568, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -6.354589, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.132002, "excess_performance": -0.060323, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.042369, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.056992, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.106568, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.121918, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.063546, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.109606, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.132002, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.94658, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 71900, "relative_activity": 2.675847, "balance": 0.94658, "dry_up": 1.543543, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.041145, "annualized_volatility": 0.254567, "from_high_reference": -0.19375, "from_low_reference": 0.240155 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.939135, "fair_value_reference": 29.144162, "structural_low": 27.495532, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": -0.007262, "positive_rate": 0.45, "directional_follow_through": 0.45, "median_excess_return": -0.00515, "regime_survival": 0.65, "best_return": 0.089286, "worst_return": -0.155779, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.007143, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.034235, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.071394, "worst_return": -0.139369, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.006447, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": -0.017499, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.017433, "worst_return": -0.145729, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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31.590348 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 33.75, "volume": 7900, "typical_volume": 29405.0, "trend": 30.539352, "fair_value": 29.11349, "relative_strength": -4.365216, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 59.290164, "energy": 45.70525, "activity_lines": [ 33.5, 33.004545, 32.637292, 31.813431 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.25, "volume": 28000, "typical_volume": 26852.5, "trend": 30.736483, "fair_value": 29.128135, "relative_strength": -7.197314, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.979227, "energy": 34.974306, "activity_lines": [ 33.183333, 32.913636, 32.667099, 31.923795 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 32.25, "volume": 71900, "typical_volume": 26870.0, "trend": 30.939135, "fair_value": 29.144162, "relative_strength": -6.354589, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 51.308834, "energy": 33.659888, "activity_lines": [ 32.883333, 32.836364, 32.678208, 32.021442 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }