{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e4f9b5b-5cb7-4112-a6db-9a971f6741ab", "symbol": "TURA", "name": "Tura Group AB", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 62.418, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -26.549, "architecture_energy": 13.514, "architecture_maturity": 10.817, "architecture_confidence": 59.18, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 46.25, "rotation_up": 14.27, "upward_expansion": 15.06, "deceleration": 59.04, "rotation_down": 47.84, "downward_expansion": 62.06 }, "activity_lines": [ 4.688, 4.75, 4.733242, 4.731451 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 4.64, "trend_reference": 4.75408, "distance_from_trend": -0.023996, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.734642, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.019989, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -15.154942, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.016949, "excess_performance": -0.078444, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.023996, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.011231, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.019989, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018895, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.151549, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.033372, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.016949, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.930229, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 20544, "relative_activity": 1.79451, "balance": 1.930229, "dry_up": 1.578909, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.100439, "annualized_volatility": 0.600123, "from_high_reference": -0.156364, "from_low_reference": 0.325714 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.75408, "fair_value_reference": 4.734642, "structural_low": 3.5, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": -0.024222, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.042319, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.130435, "worst_return": -0.153846, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.028, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.285714, "median_excess_return": -0.088745, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.07906, "worst_return": -0.177947, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.061777, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.157903, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.1288, "worst_return": -0.130769, "sufficient": true }, { 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"downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2025-01-10", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.100457, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-17", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.004274, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.058333, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-18", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-04-25", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.081081, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": 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"relative_strength": -4.613452, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 17.714234, "energy": 9.312839, "activity_lines": [ 4.810667, 4.817832, 4.762693, 4.754773 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 4.52, "volume": 36688, "typical_volume": 10577.8, "trend": 4.753413, "fair_value": 4.740453, "relative_strength": -16.139375, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -14.042467, "energy": 10.889866, "activity_lines": [ 4.713333, 4.778292, 4.742301, 4.738768 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.64, "volume": 20544, "typical_volume": 11448.25, "trend": 4.75408, "fair_value": 4.734642, "relative_strength": -15.154942, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -26.548838, "energy": 13.513825, "activity_lines": [ 4.688, 4.75, 4.733242, 4.731451 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }