{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e53bb8c-ceda-471e-8bf5-e8d48a59e084", "symbol": "ETFEZ", "name": "Amundi Index Solutions - Amundi Prime Eurozone UCITS ETF DR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 82.067, "architecture_energy": 63.852, "architecture_maturity": 68.393, "architecture_confidence": 65.41, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.98, "rotation_up": 53.76, "upward_expansion": 81.74, "deceleration": 70.06, "rotation_down": 27.71, "downward_expansion": 10.74 }, "activity_lines": [ 40.231333, 40.077818, 39.314785, 38.560742 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 41.075001, "trend_reference": 37.775333, "distance_from_trend": 0.08735, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 31.062347, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.322341, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.786964, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.113144, "excess_performance": -0.057748, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.08735, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.044457, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.322341, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.068383, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.02787, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.019824, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.113144, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.110592, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4219, "relative_activity": 0.587519, "balance": 2.110592, "dry_up": 0.51427, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.020647, "annualized_volatility": 0.16341, "from_high_reference": -0.003034, "from_low_reference": 0.266111 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 37.775333, "fair_value_reference": 31.062347, "structural_low": 33.330002, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 38, "median_return": 0.006171, "positive_rate": 0.552632, "directional_follow_through": 0.552632, "median_excess_return": -0.00218, "regime_survival": 0.763158, "best_return": 0.095367, "worst_return": -0.078365, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.012721, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.033387, "regime_survival": 0.583333, "best_return": 0.104984, "worst_return": -0.041685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.084886, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.035069, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.115043, "worst_return": -0.202398, "sufficient": true }, { 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-4.099133, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.52936, "energy": 85.964992, "activity_lines": [ 40.042666, 39.529818, 38.442381, 37.874677 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 39.445, "volume": 4079, "typical_volume": 9633.35, "trend": 37.343167, "fair_value": 30.77173, "relative_strength": -3.553596, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.863994, "energy": 69.099432, "activity_lines": [ 39.871667, 39.611091, 38.621047, 38.018957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 39.779999, "volume": 4031, "typical_volume": 7564.75, "trend": 37.493167, "fair_value": 30.86203, "relative_strength": -2.495886, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.649903, "energy": 58.475056, "activity_lines": [ 39.813333, 39.716454, 38.824119, 38.176172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 40.009998, "volume": 2443, "typical_volume": 7224.45, "trend": 37.631, "fair_value": 30.958449, "relative_strength": -2.557644, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.227808, "energy": 52.252672, "activity_lines": [ 39.857666, 39.814817, 39.029761, 38.338548 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 41.075001, "volume": 4219, "typical_volume": 7181.05, "trend": 37.775333, "fair_value": 31.062347, "relative_strength": -2.786964, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 82.066827, "energy": 63.851766, "activity_lines": [ 40.231333, 40.077818, 39.314785, 38.560742 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }