{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e54fee0-5c3b-4cb7-8a1e-b59ec8118b3f", "symbol": "PQVM", "name": "Invesco S&P 500 QVM UCITS ETF", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 63.392, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 25.575, "architecture_energy": 25.038, "architecture_maturity": 63.492, "architecture_confidence": 81.876, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.65, "rotation_up": 18.23, "upward_expansion": 53.19, "deceleration": 94.0, "rotation_down": 37.85, "downward_expansion": 21.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 77.009334, 77.905374, 77.624772, 76.305564 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.166667 }, "latest_close": 76.790001, "trend_reference": 74.470209, "distance_from_trend": 0.031151, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 60.278938, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.273911, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -0.431989, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.071513, "excess_performance": 0.020278, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.031151, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.054151, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.273911, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.053042, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00432, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.062948, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.071513, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.886498, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 357, "relative_activity": 0.081756, "balance": 0.886498, "dry_up": 0.437578, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.027094, "annualized_volatility": 0.112128, "from_high_reference": -0.050803, "from_low_reference": 0.190572 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 74.470209, "fair_value_reference": 60.278938, "structural_low": 68.129997, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.024221, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.017891, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.06916, "worst_return": -0.040083, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.053178, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.02692, "regime_survival": 0.125, "best_return": 0.12311, "worst_return": -0.051575, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.129163, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": 0.056473, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.171805, "worst_return": -0.009801, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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"Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.044068, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-05-02", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.05829, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-09", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.03256, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.028408, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.054244, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.027926, "active": 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64.53319, "activity_lines": [ 79.598, 79.156914, 77.146317, 75.482594 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 76.620003, "volume": 1725, "typical_volume": 11880.4, "trend": 73.543308, "fair_value": 59.634501, "relative_strength": 2.167515, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.793607, "energy": 45.296457, "activity_lines": [ 78.562001, 78.805448, 77.277161, 75.701096 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 78.169998, "volume": 2386, "typical_volume": 11141.9, "trend": 73.896926, "fair_value": 59.856075, "relative_strength": 2.872229, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.48609, "energy": 35.228196, "activity_lines": [ 78.248666, 78.724074, 77.536564, 75.999592 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 76.040001, "volume": 3175, "typical_volume": 10190.25, "trend": 74.190513, "fair_value": 60.064681, "relative_strength": -1.138667, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 31.59917, "energy": 24.796289, "activity_lines": [ 77.384, 78.227497, 77.558526, 76.137855 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.790001, "volume": 357, "typical_volume": 4366.65, "trend": 74.470209, "fair_value": 60.278938, "relative_strength": -0.431989, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 25.575402, "energy": 25.03811, "activity_lines": [ 77.009334, 77.905374, 77.624772, 76.305564 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }