{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e5a3e25-d23a-4d3c-ba8d-35d1384452e8", "symbol": "MXUE", "name": "Invesco MSCI USA UCITS ETF EUR", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3b", "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 61.783, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 86.936, "architecture_energy": 60.045, "architecture_maturity": 68.403, "architecture_confidence": 60.372, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 33.13, "rotation_up": 54.81, "upward_expansion": 82.32, "deceleration": 67.55, "rotation_down": 28.43, "downward_expansion": 8.99 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.076133, 7.051118, 6.997243, 6.868485 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 7.2805, "trend_reference": 6.7262, "distance_from_trend": 0.082409, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.020829, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.209219, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -4.931212, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.119388, "excess_performance": -0.051504, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.082409, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.02977, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.209219, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.031739, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.049312, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.019831, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.119388, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.223806, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4657, "relative_activity": 0.055886, "balance": 0.223806, "dry_up": 0.099384, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.017307, "annualized_volatility": 0.144317, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.211498 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.7262, "fair_value_reference": 6.020829, "structural_low": 6.0095, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.008593, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.011188, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.026217, "worst_return": -0.013125, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.031516, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.049969, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.031516, "worst_return": -0.031516, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": 0.078866, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.104592, "regime_survival": 1.0, "best_return": 0.078866, "worst_return": 0.078866, "sufficient": false }, { 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7.034909, 6.886157, 6.771645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 7.103, "volume": 13400, "typical_volume": 106485.75, "trend": 6.67605, "fair_value": 5.99327, "relative_strength": -4.527263, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 73.13728, "energy": 68.51044, "activity_lines": [ 7.059633, 7.048764, 6.922602, 6.800527 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 6.925, "volume": 7490, "typical_volume": 104069.2, "trend": 6.6889, "fair_value": 6.001589, "relative_strength": -6.573104, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 52.288228, "energy": 52.691853, "activity_lines": [ 7.0221, 7.027191, 6.93911, 6.816588 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 6.916, "volume": 7580, "typical_volume": 86495.25, "trend": 6.7032, "fair_value": 6.009681, "relative_strength": -7.146753, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 48.076411, "energy": 41.771531, "activity_lines": [ 6.988467, 7.004882, 6.95236, 6.83124 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 7.2805, "volume": 4657, "typical_volume": 83330.85, "trend": 6.7262, "fair_value": 6.020829, "relative_strength": -4.931212, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 86.936212, "energy": 60.044506, "activity_lines": [ 7.076133, 7.051118, 6.997243, 6.868485 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }