{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e641a75-72e0-4a1c-8472-3112e397cc58", "symbol": "DSV", "name": "Discovery Silver Corp.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 90.657, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": 28.796, "architecture_energy": 18.101, "architecture_maturity": 16.437, "architecture_confidence": 59.817, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.34, "rotation_up": 47.2, "upward_expansion": 32.19, "deceleration": 34.91, "rotation_down": 24.02, "downward_expansion": 23.19 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.32, 9.026364, 8.911381, 9.019441 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 10.95, "trend_reference": 9.276, "distance_from_trend": 0.180466, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.502212, "distance_from_fair_value": 2.126596, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 24.100085, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.121926, "excess_performance": 0.001505, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.180466, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.041584, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 2.126596, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.276325, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.241001, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.112658, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.121926, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.978415, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 13789900, "relative_activity": 1.448371, "balance": 0.978415, "dry_up": 1.24539, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.116579, "annualized_volatility": 0.826971, "from_high_reference": -0.122596, "from_low_reference": 2.050139 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 9.276, "fair_value_reference": 3.502212, "structural_low": 6.75, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.046494, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.049193, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.680851, "worst_return": -0.209302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.048473, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.06233, "regime_survival": 0.166667, "best_return": 0.732558, "worst_return": -0.338583, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.154215, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.104853, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 2.569767, "worst_return": -0.32, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2024-08-23", "end": "2024-09-13", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.126984, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-09-20", "end": "2024-10-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.4, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-25", "end": "2024-11-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.194175, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-11-22", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.139535, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.077922, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.092357, 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"2026-07-24", "close": 8.64, "volume": 11274900, "typical_volume": 10450715.0, "trend": 9.189667, "fair_value": 3.385994, "relative_strength": 3.137912, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.153817, "energy": 14.936238, "activity_lines": [ 8.562, 8.529273, 8.713476, 8.934946 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 8.75, "volume": 10475600, "typical_volume": 10299805.0, "trend": 9.200667, "fair_value": 3.437083, "relative_strength": 3.80767, "stage": 3, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.200468, "energy": 19.558067, "activity_lines": [ 8.586, 8.581273, 8.707, 8.906581 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.95, "volume": 13789900, "typical_volume": 9520975.0, "trend": 9.276, "fair_value": 3.502212, "relative_strength": 24.100085, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 28.795898, "energy": 18.101161, "activity_lines": [ 9.32, 9.026364, 8.911381, 9.019441 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }