{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e669e91-a7ea-47da-827f-53654ee89d07", "symbol": "KOPN", "name": "Kopin Corporation", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 9.726, "architecture_energy": 12.754, "architecture_maturity": 51.635, "architecture_confidence": 70.331, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 55.3, "rotation_up": 21.64, "upward_expansion": 43.02, "deceleration": 80.74, "rotation_down": 35.93, "downward_expansion": 34.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.846, 3.963636, 4.2485, 3.934914 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 4.27, "trend_reference": 3.518833, "distance_from_trend": 0.21347, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.951012, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.188608, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 21.433831, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.771784, "excess_performance": 0.584331, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.21347, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.187591, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.188608, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.917579, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.214338, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.660208, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.771784, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.384454, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 16823518, "relative_activity": 0.487353, "balance": 0.384454, "dry_up": 0.599854, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.235363, "annualized_volatility": 0.9126, "from_high_reference": -0.354009, "from_low_reference": 1.541667 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 3.518833, "fair_value_reference": 1.951012, "structural_low": 1.81, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 10, "median_return": -0.170073, "positive_rate": 0.1, "directional_follow_through": 0.1, "median_excess_return": -0.134198, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.201681, "worst_return": -0.409904, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.094262, "positive_rate": 0.2, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": -0.084052, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.106383, "worst_return": -0.639474, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.522832, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.330869, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.340164, "worst_return": -0.677, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.139456, 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"end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.439716, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.713955, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.607407, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.112195, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.061475, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.0181, "active": false }, { "regime": 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3.58, "volume": 19776601, "typical_volume": 33561610.65, "trend": 3.436833, "fair_value": 1.923448, "relative_strength": 9.539981, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 4.387501, "energy": 15.897748, "activity_lines": [ 3.764, 4.161091, 4.254262, 3.878011 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.52, "volume": 20398828, "typical_volume": 34204828.1, "trend": 3.471167, "fair_value": 1.934025, "relative_strength": 6.275436, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 1.799041, "energy": 15.06675, "activity_lines": [ 3.67, 3.979455, 4.219095, 3.883376 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.27, "volume": 16823518, "typical_volume": 34520154.8, "trend": 3.518833, "fair_value": 1.951012, "relative_strength": 21.433831, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 9.725897, "energy": 12.754112, "activity_lines": [ 3.846, 3.963636, 4.2485, 3.934914 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }