{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e6a6012-395e-4d9b-af2b-983ea1329105", "symbol": "U3O8", "name": "Sprott Uranium Miners UCITS ETF Accumulating", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 80.971, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -63.741, "architecture_energy": 55.429, "architecture_maturity": 17.667, "architecture_confidence": 91.895, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.91, "rotation_up": 18.9, "upward_expansion": 9.01, "deceleration": 47.47, "rotation_down": 63.95, "downward_expansion": 84.67 }, "activity_lines": [ 11.2524, 11.421055, 12.006724, 12.470546 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 11.85, "trend_reference": 13.106133, "distance_from_trend": -0.095843, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 10.164846, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.165783, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -16.717702, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.120398, "excess_performance": -0.29129, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.095843, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012416, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.165783, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.244626, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.167177, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.230351, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.120398, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.275857, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 32831, "relative_activity": 0.489663, "balance": 0.275857, "dry_up": 0.745912, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.069977, "annualized_volatility": 0.360302, "from_high_reference": -0.301627, "from_low_reference": 0.39461 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.106133, "fair_value_reference": 10.164846, "structural_low": 10.508, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.020145, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.000819, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.24258, "worst_return": -0.130534, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.14869, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.124293, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.193516, "worst_return": 0.103863, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.240873, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.154957, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.445301, "worst_return": 0.036445, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 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13.172067, "fair_value": 10.014122, "relative_strength": -15.81099, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.829952, "energy": 71.797658, "activity_lines": [ 11.935467, 12.219818, 12.805771, 13.10308 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 11.616, "volume": 31003, "typical_volume": 85415.45, "trend": 13.195333, "fair_value": 10.047712, "relative_strength": -17.027457, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -68.675705, "energy": 66.869507, "activity_lines": [ 11.8088, 12.048145, 12.6514, 13.002688 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 10.644, "volume": 58666, "typical_volume": 82060.1, "trend": 13.179, "fair_value": 10.075276, "relative_strength": -22.717356, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.385683, "energy": 84.973575, "activity_lines": [ 11.4032, 11.743491, 12.420362, 12.838086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.2, "volume": 28473, "typical_volume": 76005.8, "trend": 13.1796, "fair_value": 10.106032, "relative_strength": -18.449708, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.068064, "energy": 76.571123, "activity_lines": [ 11.256133, 11.595491, 12.261762, 12.710409 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.758, "volume": 80078, "typical_volume": 72465.6, "trend": 13.146267, "fair_value": 10.132878, "relative_strength": -22.166982, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -75.589113, "energy": 79.964127, "activity_lines": [ 11.038933, 11.393927, 12.0752, 12.554176 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.85, "volume": 32831, "typical_volume": 67048.1, "trend": 13.106133, "fair_value": 10.164846, "relative_strength": -16.717702, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.740628, "energy": 55.428884, "activity_lines": [ 11.2524, 11.421055, 12.006724, 12.470546 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }