{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e6a81c2-45c0-45c5-be13-eb6c2a4f4a92", "symbol": "HSUD", "name": "HSBC USA Screened Equity UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 91.818, "architecture_energy": 74.611, "architecture_maturity": 94.577, "architecture_confidence": 69.906, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.8, "rotation_up": 58.07, "upward_expansion": 83.0, "deceleration": 71.49, "rotation_down": 29.95, "downward_expansion": 12.0 }, "activity_lines": [ 36.272, 36.156091, 35.407976, 34.396387 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 37.154999, "trend_reference": 33.182667, "distance_from_trend": 0.119711, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 27.837212, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.334724, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 0.474794, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.199516, "excess_performance": 0.028624, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.119711, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.057441, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.334724, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.079177, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.004748, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.014223, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.199516, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 10.447368, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 370, "relative_activity": 0.098837, "balance": 10.447368, "dry_up": 0.086282, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.013364, "annualized_volatility": 0.102084, "from_high_reference": 0.0, "from_low_reference": 0.293923 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 33.182667, "fair_value_reference": 27.837212, "structural_low": 29.855, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 31, "median_return": 0.008979, "positive_rate": 0.548387, "directional_follow_through": 0.548387, "median_excess_return": -0.011428, "regime_survival": 0.709677, "best_return": 0.083423, "worst_return": -0.122015, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.023825, "positive_rate": 0.692308, "directional_follow_through": 0.692308, "median_excess_return": 0.005281, "regime_survival": 0.461538, "best_return": 0.098975, "worst_return": -0.085821, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.055479, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.017774, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.167252, "worst_return": -0.101321, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 85.013628, "energy": 79.259557, "activity_lines": [ 36.005333, 35.562, 34.127119, 33.262032 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 36.290001, "volume": 280, "typical_volume": 5229.5, "trend": 32.501167, "fair_value": 27.477564, "relative_strength": 0.076566, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 76.844799, "energy": 77.290169, "activity_lines": [ 36.145, 35.794182, 34.443476, 33.519022 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 35.915001, "volume": 20, "typical_volume": 5053.75, "trend": 32.671833, "fair_value": 27.566154, "relative_strength": 0.445675, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.510447, "energy": 68.67261, "activity_lines": [ 36.117667, 35.892273, 34.697976, 33.739269 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 35.915001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 4479.75, "trend": 32.836167, "fair_value": 27.652308, "relative_strength": 0.583853, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.017267, "energy": 67.802877, "activity_lines": [ 36.062667, 35.946091, 34.927881, 33.948506 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 35.610001, "volume": 902, "typical_volume": 3989.95, "trend": 32.986667, "fair_value": 27.739423, "relative_strength": -0.863353, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.811415, "energy": 62.081494, "activity_lines": [ 35.893668, 35.918364, 35.105905, 34.127463 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 37.154999, "volume": 370, "typical_volume": 3743.55, "trend": 33.182667, "fair_value": 27.837212, "relative_strength": 0.474794, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 91.818259, "energy": 74.610962, "activity_lines": [ 36.272, 36.156091, 35.407976, 34.396387 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }