{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e71d594-8ab6-404c-bc3a-4111b1743caf", "symbol": "ALDX", "name": "Aldeyra The", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.758, "architecture_energy": 55.517, "architecture_maturity": 71.016, "architecture_confidence": 80.946, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 24.54, "rotation_up": 15.25, "upward_expansion": 7.72, "deceleration": 56.52, "rotation_down": 66.95, "downward_expansion": 81.05 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.594667, 1.735818, 1.740905, 2.050634 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 1.55, "trend_reference": 2.727167, "distance_from_trend": -0.431645, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.144455, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.626006, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -64.82595, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.719711, "excess_performance": -0.907164, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.431645, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.272529, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.626006, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008275, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.648259, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.012846, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.719711, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.652848, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 4333757, "relative_activity": 0.56584, "balance": 0.652848, "dry_up": 0.689278, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.20794, "annualized_volatility": 1.317858, "from_high_reference": -0.748988, "from_low_reference": 0.448598 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.727167, "fair_value_reference": 4.144455, "structural_low": 1.07, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 29, "median_return": 0.01573, "positive_rate": 0.517241, "directional_follow_through": 0.482759, "median_excess_return": -0.015731, "regime_survival": 0.896552, "best_return": 0.721088, "worst_return": -0.77994, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.052672, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": -0.017145, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 1.553506, "worst_return": -0.623077, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.013426, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.006014, "regime_survival": 0.25, "best_return": 1.401826, "worst_return": -0.614607, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.101754, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.23855, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.00299, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-11", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.010582, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-18", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.123288, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-12", "tenure": "Developing", 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[ 1.944, 1.883818, 1.841238, 2.319183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.52, "volume": 5866163, "typical_volume": 12470019.35, "trend": 2.916833, "fair_value": 4.225417, "relative_strength": -65.042357, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.241784, "energy": 42.885856, "activity_lines": [ 1.796, 1.829455, 1.79169, 2.220914 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.54, "volume": 4020595, "typical_volume": 12167015.35, "trend": 2.8125, "fair_value": 4.183814, "relative_strength": -64.071646, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -59.191082, "energy": 49.93437, "activity_lines": [ 1.684, 1.781636, 1.759667, 2.132086 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.55, "volume": 4333757, "typical_volume": 7658974.8, "trend": 2.727167, "fair_value": 4.144455, "relative_strength": -64.82595, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.758251, "energy": 55.517082, "activity_lines": [ 1.594667, 1.735818, 1.740905, 2.050634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }