{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e74f0e3-28b5-4b11-8dae-033e6455c627", "symbol": "ECMB", "name": "Ecomembrane S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 32.191, "architecture_energy": 16.512, "architecture_maturity": 45.937, "architecture_confidence": 88.797, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 54.2, "rotation_up": 24.4, "upward_expansion": 53.76, "deceleration": 89.26, "rotation_down": 26.95, "downward_expansion": 17.43 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.4, 5.477273, 5.440974, 5.241543 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 5.5, "trend_reference": 4.921776, "distance_from_trend": 0.117483, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.273511, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.042948, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 2.631778, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.018809, "excess_performance": -0.152083, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.117483, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.148015, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.042948, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114772, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.026318, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.016647, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.018809, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.643617, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 22000, "relative_activity": 1.09945, "balance": 1.643617, "dry_up": 0.824588, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.096364, "annualized_volatility": 0.55337, "from_high_reference": -0.191176, "from_low_reference": 0.600985 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 4.921776, "fair_value_reference": 5.273511, "structural_low": 3.828, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.144628, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.1409, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.144628, "worst_return": -0.144628, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.219008, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.264992, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.219008, "worst_return": -0.219008, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.049587, "positive_rate": 0.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": -0.066775, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": -0.049587, "worst_return": -0.049587, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-11-01", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.132673, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.021739, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-11", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.059575, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-18", "end": "2025-09-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.05, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-26", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.12844, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-21", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.005465, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.261818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-04-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.074766, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-10", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.124935, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": 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"Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 36.017941, "energy": 21.441044, "activity_lines": [ 5.45, 5.571818, 5.381082, 5.127724 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.4, "volume": 5600, "typical_volume": 26190.0, "trend": 4.814359, "fair_value": 5.303896, "relative_strength": 3.562934, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.700902, "energy": 20.912336, "activity_lines": [ 5.393333, 5.542727, 5.407282, 5.169142 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.3, "volume": 23800, "typical_volume": 26540.0, "trend": 4.863426, "fair_value": 5.287938, "relative_strength": 1.453901, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 29.691595, "energy": 18.032679, "activity_lines": [ 5.356667, 5.491818, 5.417221, 5.200473 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.5, "volume": 22000, "typical_volume": 20010.0, "trend": 4.921776, "fair_value": 5.273511, "relative_strength": 2.631778, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.190877, "energy": 16.511677, "activity_lines": [ 5.4, 5.477273, 5.440974, 5.241543 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }