{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e769a23-19e5-456f-ad99-7d32d30b31e3", "symbol": "PIERCE", "name": "Pierce Group AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -1.637, "architecture_energy": 2.185, "architecture_maturity": 15.742, "architecture_confidence": 69.187, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 65.53, "rotation_up": 24.11, "upward_expansion": 26.58, "deceleration": 39.92, "rotation_down": 24.35, "downward_expansion": 46.25 }, "activity_lines": [ 9.842667, 9.805636, 9.737429, 9.752237 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 10.18, "trend_reference": 10.078667, "distance_from_trend": 0.010054, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 9.119295, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116314, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -19.954679, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.16214, "excess_performance": -0.223634, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.010054, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.102843, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.116314, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.060811, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.199547, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.018455, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.16214, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.858941, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 567452, "relative_activity": 0.583417, "balance": 0.858941, "dry_up": 0.486139, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.061433, "annualized_volatility": 0.391135, "from_high_reference": -0.321333, "from_low_reference": 0.2725 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 10.078667, "fair_value_reference": 9.119295, "structural_low": 8.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.003152, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.011469, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.463415, "worst_return": -0.216461, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.006667, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.094926, "regime_survival": 0.142857, "best_return": 0.626506, "worst_return": -0.226337, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.007488, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.063231, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.462687, "worst_return": -0.318777, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.119403, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.048192, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.492629, "worst_return": -0.322548, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.024096, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.082915, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.016432, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002217, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-08-22", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.022727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-10-03", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.122222, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-10", "end": "2025-10-24", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.003906, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-31", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.129771, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.018727, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-12-19", "end": "2026-01-30", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.051852, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-06", "end": "2026-02-13", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.119342, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-02-20", "end": "2026-03-06", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.048, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-13", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.139326, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.028283, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 6.18, "volume": 11923, "typical_volume": 46910.6, "trend": 7.958333, "fair_value": 28.752308, "relative_strength": -29.811575, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": 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"downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -27.347239, "energy": 13.446748, "activity_lines": [ 9.768, 9.626909, 9.634286, 9.977419 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 9.9, "volume": 446138, "typical_volume": 1296507.5, "trend": 10.652667, "fair_value": 9.045513, "relative_strength": -19.475102, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -17.701351, "energy": 13.315049, "activity_lines": [ 9.860667, 9.685636, 9.664143, 9.920903 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 9.71, "volume": 775173, "typical_volume": 1129357.3, "trend": 10.526333, "fair_value": 9.06609, "relative_strength": -20.16518, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -15.825469, "energy": 11.812502, "activity_lines": [ 9.847333, 9.705091, 9.676381, 9.860086 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 9.54, "volume": 224302, "typical_volume": 1071429.9, "trend": 10.359333, "fair_value": 9.079295, "relative_strength": -22.669945, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.694312, "energy": 11.567789, "activity_lines": [ 9.748, 9.688, 9.672667, 9.796452 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 9.7, "volume": 324420, "typical_volume": 1023042.35, "trend": 10.206, "fair_value": 9.096731, "relative_strength": -22.311787, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -19.057912, "energy": 9.266146, "activity_lines": [ 9.715333, 9.704, 9.684095, 9.753914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 10.18, "volume": 567452, "typical_volume": 972636.0, "trend": 10.078667, "fair_value": 9.119295, "relative_strength": -19.954679, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -1.637089, "energy": 2.185463, "activity_lines": [ 9.842667, 9.805636, 9.737429, 9.752237 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }