{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e7b14e2-ea1b-41d5-a3e6-235479121b99", "symbol": "ESRT", "name": "Empire State Realty Trust Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.978, "architecture_energy": 40.716, "architecture_maturity": 20.668, "architecture_confidence": 92.015, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 35.86, "rotation_up": 21.7, "upward_expansion": 13.42, "deceleration": 34.45, "rotation_down": 52.12, "downward_expansion": 75.09 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.226, 5.343346, 5.3991, 5.428647 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 4.84, "trend_reference": 5.584686, "distance_from_trend": -0.133344, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 8.015447, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.396166, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -31.149216, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.273351, "excess_performance": -0.398976, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133344, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.072453, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.396166, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092301, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.311492, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.048332, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.273351, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.906497, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9955341, "relative_activity": 1.076161, "balance": 0.906497, "dry_up": 1.010446, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.0968, "annualized_volatility": 0.338779, "from_high_reference": -0.386903, "from_low_reference": 0.013613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.584686, "fair_value_reference": 8.015447, "structural_low": 4.775, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": -0.04881, "positive_rate": 0.214286, "directional_follow_through": 0.214286, "median_excess_return": -0.048996, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.146055, "worst_return": -0.140625, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.037158, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.051111, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.136466, "worst_return": -0.301639, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.226912, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.25, "median_excess_return": -0.211332, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.158179, "worst_return": -0.267475, "sufficient": false 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"2025-08-01", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.140625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-08-08", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.06546, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.160612, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.175678, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.108656, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 7.88393, "volume": 3775461, "typical_volume": 6823598.1, "trend": 6.737217, "fair_value": 7.990531, "relative_strength": 8.6886, "stage": 2, "regime": 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"direction": -1.765372, "energy": 8.462588, "activity_lines": [ 5.574667, 5.501672, 5.459183, 5.522371 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.66, "volume": 6990646, "typical_volume": 8877349.0, "trend": 5.677682, "fair_value": 8.057684, "relative_strength": -17.398379, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -5.877822, "energy": 13.574513, "activity_lines": [ 5.628, 5.53585, 5.484743, 5.519693 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.06, "volume": 13313193, "typical_volume": 9123118.85, "trend": 5.633535, "fair_value": 8.037149, "relative_strength": -26.253101, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.023229, "energy": 15.98201, "activity_lines": [ 5.453333, 5.455204, 5.452193, 5.479843 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 4.84, "volume": 9955341, "typical_volume": 9250790.4, "trend": 5.584686, "fair_value": 8.015447, "relative_strength": -31.149216, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.977591, "energy": 40.716043, "activity_lines": [ 5.226, 5.343346, 5.3991, 5.428647 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }