{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e7ea6d4-1148-4fd0-b462-db6950cfd7b2", "symbol": "XHY1", "name": "Xtrackers II Rolling Target Maturity Sept 2027 EUR High Yield UCITS ETF 1D", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 62.999, "architecture_energy": 42.198, "architecture_maturity": 31.062, "architecture_confidence": 62.906, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 15.93, "rotation_up": 53.25, "upward_expansion": 78.66, "deceleration": 64.17, "rotation_down": 21.55, "downward_expansion": 5.33 }, "activity_lines": [ 8.646733, 8.637909, 8.612095, 8.588956 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 8.661, "trend_reference": 8.56625, "distance_from_trend": 0.011061, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 8.134646, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064705, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -13.059805, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.011927, "excess_performance": -0.158965, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.011061, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.004642, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064705, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.000205, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.130598, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.018277, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.011927, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.641254, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 168738, "relative_activity": 0.954026, "balance": 1.641254, "dry_up": 1.12132, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.00683, "annualized_volatility": 0.018299, "from_high_reference": -0.005283, "from_low_reference": 0.033588 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.56625, "fair_value_reference": 8.134646, "structural_low": 8.413, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 42, "median_return": 0.00376, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.012471, "regime_survival": 0.833333, "best_return": 0.024075, "worst_return": -0.011038, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 16, "median_return": 0.009565, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.028017, "regime_survival": 0.875, "best_return": 0.022571, "worst_return": -0.004513, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.019913, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": -0.088714, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.042255, "worst_return": 0.001259, "sufficient": true }, { 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"modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.9936, "energy": 49.536702, "activity_lines": [ 8.639733, 8.630545, 8.603852, 8.582615 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.661, "volume": 168738, "typical_volume": 176869.45, "trend": 8.56625, "fair_value": 8.134646, "relative_strength": -13.059805, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.998672, "energy": 42.198289, "activity_lines": [ 8.646733, 8.637909, 8.612095, 8.588956 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }