{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e82cc79-e871-4e0b-985e-f1efaabeb591", "symbol": "300169", "name": "Changzhou Tiansheng New Materials Group Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -46.44, "architecture_energy": 33.658, "architecture_maturity": 88.0, "architecture_confidence": 90.704, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 21.5, "rotation_up": 26.21, "upward_expansion": 16.36, "deceleration": 46.94, "rotation_down": 41.71, "downward_expansion": 68.69 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.093333, 4.995273, 5.291762, 5.570581 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 5.54, "trend_reference": 5.959, "distance_from_trend": -0.070314, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 6.910321, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.198301, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -17.572826, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.19242, "excess_performance": -0.19982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.070314, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.079691, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.198301, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.160639, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.175728, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.092751, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.19242, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.806197, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 85132202, "relative_activity": 1.894352, "balance": 0.806197, "dry_up": 1.869091, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.09664, "annualized_volatility": 0.51356, "from_high_reference": -0.376126, "from_low_reference": 0.34466 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.959, "fair_value_reference": 6.910321, "structural_low": 4.12, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 36, "median_return": 0.006998, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": 0.009112, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.708145, "worst_return": -0.278302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.023748, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.416667, "median_excess_return": -0.005379, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.871041, "worst_return": -0.269817, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.118557, "positive_rate": 0.285714, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.064442, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.153646, "worst_return": -0.162554, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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"direction": -77.760556, "energy": 88.447136, "activity_lines": [ 4.887333, 5.179273, 5.575714, 5.849097 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 4.51, "volume": 41669800, "typical_volume": 38038874.1, "trend": 6.069667, "fair_value": 6.895897, "relative_strength": -33.058659, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.796785, "energy": 87.936271, "activity_lines": [ 4.734667, 5.001091, 5.445429, 5.744753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 4.31, "volume": 43466600, "typical_volume": 37283136.55, "trend": 6.007333, "fair_value": 6.89609, "relative_strength": -35.18377, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -80.603924, "energy": 83.801377, "activity_lines": [ 4.564667, 4.823818, 5.307524, 5.631226 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.51, "volume": 165719283, "typical_volume": 43807911.7, "trend": 5.982667, "fair_value": 6.903141, "relative_strength": -14.803894, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.197696, "energy": 51.675517, "activity_lines": [ 4.848667, 4.900545, 5.295429, 5.59914 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 5.54, "volume": 85132202, "typical_volume": 44940006.8, "trend": 5.959, "fair_value": 6.910321, "relative_strength": -17.572826, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -46.439625, "energy": 33.657752, "activity_lines": [ 5.093333, 4.995273, 5.291762, 5.570581 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }