{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e833dd0-a560-497a-9d07-ff9b15c4de01", "symbol": "SVIK", "name": "Studsvik AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -61.933, "architecture_energy": 53.265, "architecture_maturity": 56.416, "architecture_confidence": 96, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 9.44, "rotation_up": 28.55, "upward_expansion": 9.59, "deceleration": 52.49, "rotation_down": 49.47, "downward_expansion": 82.92 }, "activity_lines": [ 210.433333, 211.3, 227.302381, 245.437634 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.666667 }, "latest_close": 219.0, "trend_reference": 268.983333, "distance_from_trend": -0.185823, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 170.663581, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.283226, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -24.818866, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.37069, "excess_performance": -0.432184, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.185823, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.067756, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.283226, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.472156, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248189, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.31011, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.37069, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.468541, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 143725, "relative_activity": 1.278383, "balance": 0.468541, "dry_up": 0.941196, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.090903, "annualized_volatility": 0.412763, "from_high_reference": -0.409704, "from_low_reference": 0.230337 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 268.983333, "fair_value_reference": 170.663581, "structural_low": 190.0, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": -0.008787, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.545455, "median_excess_return": 0.010932, "regime_survival": 0.636364, "best_return": 0.221872, "worst_return": -0.097252, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.060656, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.2, "median_excess_return": 0.095418, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.354364, "worst_return": -0.050473, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.232381, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 0.0, "median_excess_return": 0.194167, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.570136, "worst_return": 0.007121, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"2026-07-10", "close": 203.0, "volume": 104426, "typical_volume": 116553.85, "trend": 276.216667, "fair_value": 167.884158, "relative_strength": -28.051458, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -74.485468, "energy": 78.923444, "activity_lines": [ 211.5, 221.672727, 245.785714, 262.131183 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 204.5, "volume": 92385, "typical_volume": 113267.65, "trend": 274.8, "fair_value": 168.570301, "relative_strength": -26.5565, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -70.667848, "energy": 79.080485, "activity_lines": [ 208.066667, 216.481818, 240.102381, 257.504301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 204.5, "volume": 95010, "typical_volume": 111832.85, "trend": 273.516667, "fair_value": 169.237813, "relative_strength": -27.618312, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.099951, "energy": 80.631862, "activity_lines": [ 205.9, 212.7, 234.807143, 252.968817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 209.0, "volume": 92144, "typical_volume": 110363.4, "trend": 271.216667, "fair_value": 169.936656, "relative_strength": -26.946727, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.452963, "energy": 70.19184, "activity_lines": [ 206.4, 210.781818, 230.347619, 248.806452 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 219.0, "volume": 143725, "typical_volume": 112427.15, "trend": 268.983333, "fair_value": 170.663581, "relative_strength": -24.818866, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -61.932807, "energy": 53.264776, "activity_lines": [ 210.433333, 211.3, 227.302381, 245.437634 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }