{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e908a5b-65e6-44d8-87b4-cab4787a1b64", "symbol": "UBR3", "name": "Leverage Shares 3x Uber ETP Securities", "exchange": "LSE", "country": "GB", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^FTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -58.009, "architecture_energy": 55.617, "architecture_maturity": 83.771, "architecture_confidence": 93.505, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 27.89, "rotation_up": 15.64, "upward_expansion": 10.21, "deceleration": 41.9, "rotation_down": 59.63, "downward_expansion": 81.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.338967, 0.351682, 0.370224, 0.389505 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 0.367, "trend_reference": 0.430317, "distance_from_trend": -0.14714, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.886899, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.586199, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -51.681807, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.221633, "excess_performance": -0.272868, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.14714, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.261724, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.586199, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.090221, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.516818, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.007083, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.221633, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.23552, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 227781, "relative_activity": 2.58006, "balance": 0.23552, "dry_up": 0.976855, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.140013, "annualized_volatility": 0.851585, "from_high_reference": -0.753028, "from_low_reference": 0.40613 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.430317, "fair_value_reference": 0.886899, "structural_low": 0.261, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 17, "median_return": -0.030899, "positive_rate": 0.470588, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.049697, "regime_survival": 0.764706, "best_return": 0.810157, "worst_return": -0.466131, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.138707, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.114033, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.297837, "worst_return": -0.520141, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.30405, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.266413, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 3.043866, "worst_return": -0.638973, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.363746, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.398502, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-05-16", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.270484, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-05-23", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.153503, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-07-04", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.091854, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-11", "end": "2025-08-15", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.133599, "active": false }, { 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"energy": 44.466491, "activity_lines": [ 0.355533, 0.360327, 0.381107, 0.404268 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.3045, "volume": 61020, "typical_volume": 77046.6, "trend": 0.443367, "fair_value": 0.887268, "relative_strength": -60.743734, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.781607, "energy": 62.646053, "activity_lines": [ 0.333467, 0.349455, 0.372357, 0.394432 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.367, "volume": 227781, "typical_volume": 88285.15, "trend": 0.430317, "fair_value": 0.886899, "relative_strength": -51.681807, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -58.00856, "energy": 55.616912, "activity_lines": [ 0.338967, 0.351682, 0.370224, 0.389505 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }