{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e928397-0a33-4e3b-a195-f5334c44e945", "symbol": "2300", "name": "Saudi Paper Manufacturing Company", "exchange": "SAU", "country": "SA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^TASI.SR", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2a", "phase_label": "Stage 2A \u00b7 Early advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 70.672, "architecture_energy": 82.185, "architecture_maturity": 19.239, "architecture_confidence": 83.58, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 7.3, "rotation_up": 79.42, "upward_expansion": 94.97, "deceleration": 41.85, "rotation_down": 11.12, "downward_expansion": 21.64 }, "activity_lines": [ 66.359999, 63.310908, 60.992745, 59.425486 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 67.349998, "trend_reference": 57.786782, "distance_from_trend": 0.165491, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 57.099757, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.179515, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 20.222144, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.220887, "excess_performance": 0.252716, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.165491, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.027372, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.179515, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.067941, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.202221, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.143993, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.220887, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.83727, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1068910, "relative_activity": 1.656103, "balance": 1.83727, "dry_up": 1.277255, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.059892, "annualized_volatility": 0.362915, "from_high_reference": -0.045358, "from_low_reference": 0.445582 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 57.786782, "fair_value_reference": 57.099757, "structural_low": 46.590237, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 20, "median_return": 0.009641, "positive_rate": 0.65, "directional_follow_through": 0.65, "median_excess_return": 0.023886, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.347222, "worst_return": -0.23298, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.022913, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.004549, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.805658, "worst_return": -0.318013, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.163212, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.108838, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 1.054815, "worst_return": -0.250372, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"relative_strength": 16.372714, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.453284, "energy": 37.046431, "activity_lines": [ 58.96, 58.361113, 57.880182, 57.210997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 62.349998, "volume": 459935, "typical_volume": 557891.9, "trend": 57.160049, "fair_value": 56.362175, "relative_strength": 13.864179, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 61.648499, "energy": 46.132142, "activity_lines": [ 60.273333, 59.112664, 58.422709, 57.565974 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 64.599998, "volume": 589276, "typical_volume": 558653.6, "trend": 57.350644, "fair_value": 56.592474, "relative_strength": 16.85068, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.056456, "energy": 69.188153, "activity_lines": [ 62.019999, 60.23909, 59.125716, 58.045971 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 69.0, "volume": 1179428, "typical_volume": 602115.5, "trend": 57.616865, "fair_value": 56.851546, "relative_strength": 26.594253, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.148851, "energy": 83.476599, "activity_lines": [ 64.936666, 62.031818, 60.18278, 58.797542 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 67.349998, "volume": 1068910, "typical_volume": 645436.95, "trend": 57.786782, "fair_value": 57.099757, "relative_strength": 20.222144, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.671813, "energy": 82.184729, "activity_lines": [ 66.359999, 63.310908, 60.992745, 59.425486 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }