{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7e966ed2-2461-4a98-bcd3-71048c835ffd", "symbol": "7568", "name": "CSOP NASDAQ-100 Index Daily (-2x) Inverse Product", "exchange": "HKG", "country": "HK", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^HSI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -56.863, "architecture_energy": 38.34, "architecture_maturity": 98.421, "architecture_confidence": 87.115, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.05, "rotation_up": 27.95, "upward_expansion": 23.83, "deceleration": 46.98, "rotation_down": 36.68, "downward_expansion": 64.83 }, "activity_lines": [ 2.424667, 2.397455, 2.446752, 2.638903 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 2.318, "trend_reference": 2.871533, "distance_from_trend": -0.192766, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 5.284808, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.561384, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -24.84192, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.335817, "excess_performance": -0.302235, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.192766, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.093467, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.561384, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.013394, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.248419, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.071148, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.335817, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.51579, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 34493800, "relative_activity": 0.843668, "balance": 0.51579, "dry_up": 0.975451, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.064379, "annualized_volatility": 0.344103, "from_high_reference": -0.411675, "from_low_reference": 0.058447 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.871533, "fair_value_reference": 5.284808, "structural_low": 2.19, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 45, "median_return": -0.044863, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.017029, "regime_survival": 0.911111, "best_return": 0.246753, "worst_return": -0.192188, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.079807, "positive_rate": 0.266667, "directional_follow_through": 0.733333, "median_excess_return": -0.078812, "regime_survival": 0.8, "best_return": 0.170347, "worst_return": -0.317763, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": -0.196027, "positive_rate": 0.125, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.160596, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.440678, "worst_return": -0.385855, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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63.467117, "activity_lines": [ 2.3248, 2.326255, 2.5642, 2.764297 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 2.492, "volume": 39571310, "typical_volume": 42289570.7, "trend": 2.9474, "fair_value": 5.414378, "relative_strength": -17.904136, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -52.054767, "energy": 53.310696, "activity_lines": [ 2.379867, 2.352655, 2.532543, 2.7332 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 2.5, "volume": 34024030, "typical_volume": 41920874.95, "trend": 2.925067, "fair_value": 5.373096, "relative_strength": -18.303869, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.248824, "energy": 47.412831, "activity_lines": [ 2.429333, 2.380836, 2.505676, 2.704335 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 2.494, "volume": 51438040, "typical_volume": 41157078.4, "trend": 2.901133, "fair_value": 5.330718, "relative_strength": -20.606296, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -43.220055, "energy": 34.493354, "activity_lines": [ 2.460133, 2.406218, 2.48221, 2.676525 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 2.318, "volume": 34493800, "typical_volume": 40885505.65, "trend": 2.871533, "fair_value": 5.284808, "relative_strength": -24.84192, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -56.863474, "energy": 38.340382, "activity_lines": [ 2.424667, 2.397455, 2.446752, 2.638903 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }