{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ea0d7ee-0e55-463d-b336-2d94eff09102", "symbol": "SMHX", "name": "VANECK FABLESS SEMICONDUCTOR ETF", "exchange": "NASDAQ", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "QQQ", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.113, "architecture_energy": 23.358, "architecture_maturity": 78.028, "architecture_confidence": 93.211, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.25, "rotation_up": 27.22, "upward_expansion": 57.41, "deceleration": 88.19, "rotation_down": 30.24, "downward_expansion": 18.75 }, "activity_lines": [ 57.239787, 58.410115, 57.86655, 54.183329 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 59.88, "trend_reference": 49.3711, "distance_from_trend": 0.212855, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 36.268565, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.651017, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 19.237324, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.507173, "excess_performance": 0.31972, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.212855, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.165708, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.651017, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.046695, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.192373, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.059403, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.507173, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.078181, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 362593, "relative_activity": 0.622826, "balance": 1.078181, "dry_up": 0.839745, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.102789, "annualized_volatility": 0.4157, "from_high_reference": -0.124049, "from_low_reference": 0.794287 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 49.3711, "fair_value_reference": 36.268565, "structural_low": 34.74, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 0, "median_return": null, "positive_rate": null, "directional_follow_through": null, "median_excess_return": null, "regime_survival": null, "best_return": null, "worst_return": null, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.008374, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.159054, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-07-17", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.192492, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-24", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.073888, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2024-08-30", "close": 25.214741, "volume": 85856, "typical_volume": null, "trend": null, "fair_value": null, 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61.160333, 61.05082, 56.247186, 51.957137 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 55.4509, "volume": 735838, "typical_volume": 580061.85, "trend": 47.587563, "fair_value": 35.645593, "relative_strength": 16.863366, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.021783, "energy": 30.657108, "activity_lines": [ 59.042967, 60.173891, 56.680399, 52.501997 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 55.76, "volume": 283511, "typical_volume": 570387.55, "trend": 48.15323, "fair_value": 35.846737, "relative_strength": 18.666085, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 38.546146, "energy": 23.402855, "activity_lines": [ 57.50924, 59.359965, 57.061902, 53.029251 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 54.84, "volume": 573567, "typical_volume": 583761.55, "trend": 48.678563, "fair_value": 36.034789, "relative_strength": 15.45194, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 32.754319, "energy": 21.800652, "activity_lines": [ 56.37018, 58.377313, 57.266548, 53.460656 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 59.88, "volume": 362593, "typical_volume": 582173.45, "trend": 49.3711, "fair_value": 36.268565, "relative_strength": 19.237324, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.113408, "energy": 23.357985, "activity_lines": [ 57.239787, 58.410115, 57.86655, 54.183329 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }