{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ea5cf11-4f9b-43b0-b28f-4b927e3b63d0", "symbol": "SWP", "name": "Swiss Water Decaffeinated Coffee Inc.", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.244, "architecture_energy": 51.844, "architecture_maturity": 36.543, "architecture_confidence": 75.066, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 25.77, "rotation_up": 48.21, "upward_expansion": 75.57, "deceleration": 66.52, "rotation_down": 26.19, "downward_expansion": 6.9 }, "activity_lines": [ 5.818667, 5.765636, 5.632762, 5.417806 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.25, "trend_reference": 5.126667, "distance_from_trend": 0.219116, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 3.855, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.621271, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 15.18648, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.417234, "excess_performance": 0.296812, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.219116, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089544, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.621271, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.145524, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.151865, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.061, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.417234, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 4.890351, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 63300, "relative_activity": 4.927988, "balance": 4.890351, "dry_up": 1.508369, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.050708, "annualized_volatility": 0.305396, "from_high_reference": -0.038462, "from_low_reference": 0.64042 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 5.126667, "fair_value_reference": 3.855, "structural_low": 4.4, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 11, "median_return": 0.0, "positive_rate": 0.454545, "directional_follow_through": 0.454545, "median_excess_return": -0.014353, "regime_survival": 0.545455, "best_return": 0.049887, "worst_return": -0.068421, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.006803, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.069414, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.038813, "worst_return": -0.171053, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.087302, "positive_rate": 0.75, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": 0.001864, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.155263, "worst_return": -0.014235, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.097738, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.064295, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.266904, "worst_return": -0.071429, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2024-10-18", "end": "2024-11-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.025641, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-11-08", "end": "2024-12-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.02439, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-01-03", "end": "2025-01-24", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.078947, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-01-31", "end": "2025-02-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.112994, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-03-07", "end": "2025-06-13", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.07932, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-20", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.036446, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.079007, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-09-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.020408, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-10-03", "end": "2025-11-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.037199, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-11-28", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.015625, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.095023, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.169102, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.122083, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.72, "volume": 14300, "typical_volume": 17385.0, "trend": 2.807333, "fair_value": 2.943397, "relative_strength": 0.052487, "stage": 1, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -49.493986, "energy": 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"upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 71.404681, "energy": 55.98825, "activity_lines": [ 5.752, 5.695273, 5.398238, 5.175849 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 5.63, "volume": 5700, "typical_volume": 18225.0, "trend": 4.957, "fair_value": 3.777564, "relative_strength": 7.05208, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.771404, "energy": 46.885836, "activity_lines": [ 5.725333, 5.698364, 5.445048, 5.221957 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 5.66, "volume": 9300, "typical_volume": 18290.0, "trend": 4.992667, "fair_value": 3.795897, "relative_strength": 7.670498, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.505292, "energy": 43.709521, "activity_lines": [ 5.71, 5.700545, 5.489667, 5.267312 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 5.6, "volume": 2000, "typical_volume": 11250.0, "trend": 5.028, "fair_value": 3.814167, "relative_strength": 6.25054, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 44.962222, "energy": 35.161668, "activity_lines": [ 5.673333, 5.685818, 5.522571, 5.306495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 5.57, "volume": 2900, "typical_volume": 10860.0, "trend": 5.066667, "fair_value": 3.831667, "relative_strength": 6.083752, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.200858, "energy": 27.591559, "activity_lines": [ 5.626667, 5.661818, 5.547714, 5.341462 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.25, "volume": 63300, "typical_volume": 12845.0, "trend": 5.126667, "fair_value": 3.855, "relative_strength": 15.18648, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.243894, "energy": 51.84378, "activity_lines": [ 5.818667, 5.765636, 5.632762, 5.417806 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }