{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7eb96016-05f0-4139-8545-c9505f13f2b4", "symbol": "EVSB", "name": "MORGAN STANLEY ETF TRUST EATON VANCE ULTRA-SHORT INCOME ETF USD", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 78.287, "architecture_energy": 65.248, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 68.212, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 18.04, "rotation_up": 70.09, "upward_expansion": 86.54, "deceleration": 50.06, "rotation_down": 17.15, "downward_expansion": 10.87 }, "activity_lines": [ 50.754808, 50.712827, 50.650483, 50.579636 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.833333 }, "latest_close": 50.825, "trend_reference": 50.47213, "distance_from_trend": 0.006991, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 47.887803, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.061335, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -9.660462, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.012325, "excess_performance": -0.1133, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.006991, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.00575, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.061335, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001256, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.096605, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 2.1e-05, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.012325, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 6.532206, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 114863, "relative_activity": 0.442159, "balance": 6.532206, "dry_up": 0.415698, "accumulation_observations": 3, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.002241, "annualized_volatility": 0.007153, "from_high_reference": -0.000439, "from_low_reference": 0.037547 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 50.47213, "fair_value_reference": 47.887803, "structural_low": 50.147098, 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"volume": 116205, "typical_volume": 261523.0, "trend": 50.419925, "fair_value": 47.847835, "relative_strength": -6.27063, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.070806, "energy": 50.578395, "activity_lines": [ 50.681964, 50.666798, 50.605711, 50.534111 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 50.7461, "volume": 87462, "typical_volume": 257179.05, "trend": 50.445529, "fair_value": 47.867686, "relative_strength": -6.930303, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 70.642119, "energy": 56.413315, "activity_lines": [ 50.710556, 50.684565, 50.625415, 50.555154 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 50.825, "volume": 114863, "typical_volume": 259777.45, "trend": 50.47213, "fair_value": 47.887803, "relative_strength": -9.660462, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 78.287329, "energy": 65.247598, "activity_lines": [ 50.754808, 50.712827, 50.650483, 50.579636 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }