{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ebdc333-f200-4757-ad09-7fc971a01524", "symbol": "TNA", "name": "DIREXION DAILY SMALL CAP BULL 3X ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 55.241, "architecture_energy": 34.066, "architecture_maturity": 55.363, "architecture_confidence": 93.383, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 29.46, "rotation_up": 37.74, "upward_expansion": 63.2, "deceleration": 87.19, "rotation_down": 25.92, "downward_expansion": 15.53 }, "activity_lines": [ 70.583333, 70.738306, 68.171164, 64.159234 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 74.68, "trend_reference": 59.874006, "distance_from_trend": 0.247286, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 42.028887, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.776873, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 25.030127, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.345699, "excess_performance": 0.220074, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.247286, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149614, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.776873, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.114662, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.250301, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054727, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.345699, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.09095, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 18791165, "relative_activity": 0.552787, "balance": 1.09095, "dry_up": 0.60724, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.095445, "annualized_volatility": 0.490621, "from_high_reference": -0.028098, "from_low_reference": 1.159052 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 59.874006, "fair_value_reference": 42.028887, "structural_low": 39.5, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.034091, "positive_rate": 0.8, "directional_follow_through": 0.8, "median_excess_return": -0.004348, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.200745, "worst_return": -0.16257, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.173351, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.125735, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.589213, "worst_return": -0.511836, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.349841, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.225721, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.618859, "worst_return": -0.151032, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, 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61.926795 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 67.8, "volume": 17570131, "typical_volume": 39265376.7, "trend": 58.476851, "fair_value": 41.588509, "relative_strength": 21.169138, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 56.036895, "energy": 39.829017, "activity_lines": [ 70.172, 70.102291, 66.401599, 62.569797 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 67.6, "volume": 24159977, "typical_volume": 36136835.0, "trend": 59.16688, "fair_value": 41.779762, "relative_strength": 18.368081, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.575902, "energy": 28.292344, "activity_lines": [ 69.009333, 69.799482, 67.00588, 63.158387 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 74.68, "volume": 18791165, "typical_volume": 33993505.3, "trend": 59.874006, "fair_value": 42.028887, "relative_strength": 25.030127, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 55.241458, "energy": 34.06604, "activity_lines": [ 70.583333, 70.738306, 68.171164, 64.159234 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }