{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ebf9a21-509f-4415-aa43-18865950aaf5", "symbol": "KRE", "name": "STATE STREET SPDR S&P REGIONAL BANKING ETF", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 66.558, "architecture_energy": 55.001, "architecture_maturity": 39.259, "architecture_confidence": 80.725, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 3.29, "rotation_up": 67.3, "upward_expansion": 86.28, "deceleration": 53.09, "rotation_down": 19.0, "downward_expansion": 8.28 }, "activity_lines": [ 76.058667, 75.361324, 73.137003, 71.532112 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Stable", "price_acceptance": 1.0 }, "latest_close": 76.21, "trend_reference": 69.994053, "distance_from_trend": 0.088807, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 56.485383, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.349199, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 1.582635, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.040949, "excess_performance": -0.084676, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.088807, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.052928, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price 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"A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 23, "median_return": -0.014035, "positive_rate": 0.434783, "directional_follow_through": 0.434783, "median_excess_return": -0.022669, "regime_survival": 0.695652, "best_return": 0.119766, "worst_return": -0.114618, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.009464, "positive_rate": 0.444444, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.012216, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.095679, "worst_return": -0.143193, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": -0.020542, "positive_rate": 0.4, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": -0.037543, "regime_survival": 0.2, "best_return": 0.141734, "worst_return": -0.151302, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"volume": 59584130, "typical_volume": 70589164.95, "trend": 69.690286, "fair_value": 56.280208, "relative_strength": 5.06215, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.438788, "energy": 64.640752, "activity_lines": [ 75.89, 74.904237, 72.599086, 71.111485 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 76.21, "volume": 59814286, "typical_volume": 68679070.3, "trend": 69.994053, "fair_value": 56.485383, "relative_strength": 1.582635, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.557972, "energy": 55.001423, "activity_lines": [ 76.058667, 75.361324, 73.137003, 71.532112 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }