{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7ec9551a-e2c2-4d4c-8989-06e3fdaf5f5e",
    "symbol": "SBEM",
    "name": "UBS BBG USD EM Sovereign UCITS ETF USD dis",
    "exchange": "MIL",
    "country": "IT",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI",
    "stage": 3,
    "stage_name": "Distribution",
    "phase": "3b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 3B \u00b7 Distribution",
    "transition": "stage_3_churning",
    "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "deceleration",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration",
    "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing",
    "architecture_gate": "up",
    "architecture_direction": 41.422,
    "architecture_energy": 27.812,
    "architecture_maturity": 58.393,
    "architecture_confidence": 70.606,
    "architecture_tenure": "New",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.",
        "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 32.45,
        "rotation_up": 28.33,
        "upward_expansion": 65.5,
        "deceleration": 88.33,
        "rotation_down": 27.82,
        "downward_expansion": 17.84
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        8.3568,
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        8.328643,
        8.268874
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Weakening",
      "price_acceptance": 0.333333
    },
    "latest_close": 8.337,
    "trend_reference": 8.194348,
    "distance_from_trend": 0.017409,
    "trend_direction": "Improving",
    "fair_value": 7.525457,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.10784,
    "fair_value_direction": "Improving",
    "relative_strength": -11.327996,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening",
    "price_momentum": 0.041793,
    "excess_performance": -0.129098,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.017409,
        "read": "Above"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.016615,
        "read": "Rising"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.10784,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.002666,
        "read": "Closing upward"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.11328,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.026889,
        "read": "Weakening"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.041793,
        "read": "Positive"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.678175,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 37922,
      "relative_activity": 0.604257,
      "balance": 0.678175,
      "dry_up": 0.997589,
      "accumulation_observations": 1,
      "distribution_observations": 2
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.010795,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.054642,
      "from_high_reference": -0.019523,
      "from_low_reference": 0.099265
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 8.194348,
      "fair_value_reference": 7.525457,
      "structural_low": 7.946,
      "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 5,
        "median_return": 0.011376,
        "positive_rate": 0.8,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.8,
        "median_excess_return": 0.036926,
        "regime_survival": 0.2,
        "best_return": 0.015435,
        "worst_return": -0.090677,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.007216,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.064023,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.025128,
        "worst_return": -0.043457,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.006271,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.666667,
        "median_excess_return": -0.011913,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.094052,
        "worst_return": -0.073335,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 2,
        "median_return": -0.054267,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.030461,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.035882,
        "worst_return": -0.144416,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
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        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "end": "2023-10-13",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.004789,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2023-12-01",
        "tenure": "Developing",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "tenure": "Extended",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "end": "2025-03-28",
        "tenure": "New",
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      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-04-25",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "label": "Downward Expansion",
        "color": "red",
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        "end": "2025-07-25",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
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        "active": false
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
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        "stage": 3,
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        "energy": 84.754397,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "fair_value": 7.502682,
        "relative_strength": -8.03897,
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        "energy": 62.700215,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 8.295,
        "volume": 57756,
        "typical_volume": 62976.55,
        "trend": 8.185422,
        "fair_value": 7.51404,
        "relative_strength": -9.429268,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established expansion",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 48.395576,
        "energy": 40.949534,
        "activity_lines": [
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        ]
      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 8.337,
        "volume": 37922,
        "typical_volume": 62758.05,
        "trend": 8.194348,
        "fair_value": 7.525457,
        "relative_strength": -11.327996,
        "stage": 3,
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "modifier": "Recompressing",
        "gate": "up",
        "direction": 41.422006,
        "energy": 27.81237,
        "activity_lines": [
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}