{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ec9c534-d4d2-469e-9e6b-3b2ee6d3fade", "symbol": "SVR-C", "name": "iShares Silver Bullion ETF (Non-Hedged)", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 88.791, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -64.816, "architecture_energy": 56.838, "architecture_maturity": 28.913, "architecture_confidence": 94.173, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 13.39, "rotation_up": 21.73, "upward_expansion": 9.26, "deceleration": 51.69, "rotation_down": 62.13, "downward_expansion": 84.93 }, "activity_lines": [ 31.316668, 31.713091, 34.121095, 35.792193 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 33.240002, "trend_reference": 38.370333, "distance_from_trend": -0.133706, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.435577, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.550693, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -11.846525, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.169, "excess_performance": -0.289421, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.133706, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.001157, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.550693, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.558387, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.118465, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.369495, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.169, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.294393, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 9100, "relative_activity": 0.28318, "balance": 0.294393, "dry_up": 0.338416, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079307, "annualized_volatility": 0.474067, "from_high_reference": -0.462744, "from_low_reference": 0.696784 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 38.370333, "fair_value_reference": 21.435577, "structural_low": 28.889999, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 18, "median_return": 0.007229, "positive_rate": 0.555556, "directional_follow_through": 0.444444, "median_excess_return": -0.003207, "regime_survival": 0.777778, "best_return": 0.118317, "worst_return": -0.074167, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.031818, "positive_rate": 0.571429, "directional_follow_through": 0.428571, "median_excess_return": -0.023518, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.291987, "worst_return": -0.157262, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": 0.060933, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.041021, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.290118, "worst_return": -0.109312, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.25, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.208031, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.514053, "worst_return": -0.2, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-11-10", "end": "2023-12-01", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.084448, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2023-12-08", "end": "2023-12-29", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006557, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-01-05", "end": "2024-01-26", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.002555, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-02-02", "end": "2024-03-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.061708, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-03-15", "end": "2024-07-26", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.124138, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-08-02", "end": "2024-09-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.081171, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-10-04", "end": "2024-11-22", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.001796, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-11-29", "end": "2025-01-31", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053463, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-07", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.002302, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.122388, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2026-02-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": 1.308183, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-02-27", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.258696, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-06-26", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.076221, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-07-03", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.017759, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 11.83, "volume": 1800, "typical_volume": 3260.0, "trend": 12.028667, "fair_value": 11.79859, "relative_strength": 3.102353, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": 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38.947, "fair_value": 20.425769, "relative_strength": 0.904584, "stage": 3, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Momentum cooling", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -37.211109, "energy": 47.276229, "activity_lines": [ 37.037333, 38.226181, 38.998333, 39.61529 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-19", "close": 33.98, "volume": 6300, "typical_volume": 77115.0, "trend": 39.192, "fair_value": 20.570705, "relative_strength": -4.218417, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -48.547472, "energy": 63.149396, "activity_lines": [ 35.771333, 37.319091, 38.436381, 39.294838 ] }, { "date": "2026-06-26", "close": 31.389999, "volume": 2300, "typical_volume": 61815.0, "trend": 39.245, "fair_value": 20.697949, "relative_strength": -11.870843, "stage": 3, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -84.053541, "energy": 83.924478, "activity_lines": [ 34.006666, 36.045272, 37.670952, 38.791483 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 32.66, "volume": 800, "typical_volume": 53890.0, "trend": 39.314333, "fair_value": 20.832179, "relative_strength": -9.367957, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.161995, "energy": 81.477, "activity_lines": [ 33.174666, 35.192909, 37.067476, 38.366645 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 31.85, "volume": 38400, "typical_volume": 50410.0, "trend": 39.3, "fair_value": 20.95532, "relative_strength": -12.022929, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -72.768834, "energy": 82.932503, "activity_lines": [ 32.507333, 34.313091, 36.420571, 37.885075 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.5, "volume": 25500, "typical_volume": 45985.0, "trend": 39.117, "fair_value": 21.064359, "relative_strength": -18.582269, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -82.286391, "energy": 88.868338, "activity_lines": [ 31.309333, 33.129091, 35.605047, 37.252817 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 30.42, "volume": 4700, "typical_volume": 40515.0, "trend": 38.889333, "fair_value": 21.180192, "relative_strength": -16.50301, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -71.227437, "energy": 81.630351, "activity_lines": [ 30.824, 32.327818, 34.965285, 36.69172 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 30.360001, "volume": 4200, "typical_volume": 36770.0, "trend": 38.653333, "fair_value": 21.2975, "relative_strength": -16.550118, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -69.458779, "energy": 76.646751, "activity_lines": [ 30.556, 31.679818, 34.379809, 36.141441 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 33.240002, "volume": 9100, "typical_volume": 32135.0, "trend": 38.370333, "fair_value": 21.435577, "relative_strength": -11.846525, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -64.815841, "energy": 56.837747, "activity_lines": [ 31.316668, 31.713091, 34.121095, 35.792193 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }