{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ed10459-1f0a-4f5f-af60-5176cdfdc4a7", "symbol": "300181", "name": "Zhejiang Jolly Pharmaceutical Co.,LTD", "exchange": "SHZ", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "399001.SZ", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -24.842, "architecture_energy": 18.485, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 65.166, "architecture_tenure": "Extended", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 48.57, "rotation_up": 36.56, "upward_expansion": 22.58, "deceleration": 41.19, "rotation_down": 18.69, "downward_expansion": 51.91 }, "activity_lines": [ 14.108667, 13.840727, 13.950836, 14.342314 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 14.36, "trend_reference": 14.935137, "distance_from_trend": -0.038509, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 14.028752, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.023612, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -13.963162, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.136518, "excess_performance": -0.143918, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.038509, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.065104, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.023612, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051052, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.139632, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.149045, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.136518, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.608002, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 92411511, "relative_activity": 1.583761, "balance": 0.608002, "dry_up": 2.231687, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.06543, "annualized_volatility": 0.273041, "from_high_reference": -0.301264, "from_low_reference": 0.127159 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.935137, "fair_value_reference": 14.028752, "structural_low": 12.74, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": 0.004132, "positive_rate": 0.538462, "directional_follow_through": 0.461538, "median_excess_return": -0.011275, "regime_survival": 0.846154, "best_return": 0.117241, "worst_return": -0.081373, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.023041, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.4, "median_excess_return": 0.064179, "regime_survival": 0.6, "best_return": 0.103764, "worst_return": -0.151576, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.129196, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.227084, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.133334, "worst_return": -0.221693, "sufficient": false }, 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"volume": 145824158, "typical_volume": 53690805.3, "trend": 15.046453, "fair_value": 13.978724, "relative_strength": -16.744463, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -39.834007, "energy": 24.021837, "activity_lines": [ 13.687333, 13.538, 13.944414, 14.422852 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 14.42, "volume": 87003408, "typical_volume": 56310246.55, "trend": 14.981879, "fair_value": 14.00314, "relative_strength": -9.951526, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -32.059598, "energy": 18.764592, "activity_lines": [ 13.96, 13.699818, 13.947031, 14.382436 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 14.36, "volume": 92411511, "typical_volume": 58349421.3, "trend": 14.935137, "fair_value": 14.028752, "relative_strength": -13.963162, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -24.841518, "energy": 18.484892, "activity_lines": [ 14.108667, 13.840727, 13.950836, 14.342314 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }