{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ed385bc-419e-425e-9f5f-79f5b3231ac5", "symbol": "BBN", "name": "Baby Bunting Group Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -66.568, "architecture_energy": 82.031, "architecture_maturity": 68.0, "architecture_confidence": 87.002, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.62, "rotation_up": 9.16, "upward_expansion": 19.74, "deceleration": 37.27, "rotation_down": 78.3, "downward_expansion": 95.41 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.15, 1.264727, 1.359595, 1.456409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.833333 }, "latest_close": 1.16, "trend_reference": 1.651667, "distance_from_trend": -0.297679, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 1.859441, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.376156, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -47.994227, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.472727, "excess_performance": -0.536433, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.297679, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.204336, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.376156, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.098462, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.479942, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.092529, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.472727, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.269381, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1970604, "relative_activity": 1.65165, "balance": 0.269381, "dry_up": 2.257026, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.139423, "annualized_volatility": 0.571668, "from_high_reference": -0.647416, "from_low_reference": 0.154229 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.651667, "fair_value_reference": 1.859441, "structural_low": 1.005, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": 0.000923, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.001015, "regime_survival": 0.823529, "best_return": 0.32646, "worst_return": -0.422898, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 13, "median_return": -0.035335, "positive_rate": 0.461538, "directional_follow_through": 0.538462, "median_excess_return": -0.111784, "regime_survival": 0.615385, "best_return": 0.203333, "worst_return": -0.401326, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.064581, "positive_rate": 0.428571, "directional_follow_through": 0.571429, "median_excess_return": -0.040599, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 1.133333, "worst_return": -0.46417, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-21", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.067568, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-03-28", "end": "2025-04-04", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.139601, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-11", "end": "2025-05-23", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.106667, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-30", "end": "2025-06-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.078035, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-07-04", "end": "2025-07-25", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.084699, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-08-01", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.011662, "active": false }, { 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1.746667, "fair_value": 1.870238, "relative_strength": -47.366546, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -83.927715, "energy": 82.714515, "activity_lines": [ 1.272, 1.379455, 1.426714, 1.536796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.04, "volume": 4680037, "typical_volume": 1141715.15, "trend": 1.699333, "fair_value": 1.86495, "relative_strength": -52.141488, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -85.941361, "energy": 89.604794, "activity_lines": [ 1.178333, 1.308364, 1.385619, 1.491204 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.16, "volume": 1970604, "typical_volume": 1193112.35, "trend": 1.651667, "fair_value": 1.859441, "relative_strength": -47.994227, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -66.568389, "energy": 82.030907, "activity_lines": [ 1.15, 1.264727, 1.359595, 1.456409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }