{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ed6cab7-52ee-4141-a122-0221e835c4fa", "symbol": "NGL", "name": "NGL Energy Partners LP", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 91.112, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 49.757, "architecture_energy": 29.993, "architecture_maturity": 41.357, "architecture_confidence": 62.288, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 41.74, "rotation_up": 46.84, "upward_expansion": 63.38, "deceleration": 60.68, "rotation_down": 19.33, "downward_expansion": 13.38 }, "activity_lines": [ 16.100667, 15.821636, 15.850476, 15.155161 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 16.88, "trend_reference": 14.067667, "distance_from_trend": 0.199915, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 6.885, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.451707, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 34.641527, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.40784, "excess_performance": 0.282215, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.199915, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.168152, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.451707, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.339043, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.346415, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.434266, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.40784, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.007596, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1365706, "relative_activity": 1.099866, "balance": 1.007596, "dry_up": 0.779109, "accumulation_observations": 5, "distribution_observations": 4 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106121, "annualized_volatility": 0.376504, "from_high_reference": -0.102128, "from_low_reference": 2.806088 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 14.067667, "fair_value_reference": 6.885, "structural_low": 10.89, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000434, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.003986, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.378571, "worst_return": -0.079225, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.132812, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.096174, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.464286, "worst_return": -0.1875, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.072545, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.039848, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.410714, "worst_return": -0.265625, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 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"fair_value": 6.724744, "relative_strength": 34.661929, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 20.051293, "energy": 14.986799, "activity_lines": [ 15.227333, 15.536182, 15.540714, 14.778839 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 16.39, "volume": 1285368, "typical_volume": 1238793.05, "trend": 13.826667, "fair_value": 6.803077, "relative_strength": 37.723019, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 34.226351, "energy": 16.626454, "activity_lines": [ 15.597333, 15.618727, 15.684619, 14.958172 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 16.88, "volume": 1365706, "typical_volume": 1241701.8, "trend": 14.067667, "fair_value": 6.885, "relative_strength": 34.641527, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 49.757107, "energy": 29.993299, "activity_lines": [ 16.100667, 15.821636, 15.850476, 15.155161 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }