{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ed94b4f-054b-43db-aac8-b5655c999675", "symbol": "PMM", "name": "Putnam Managed Municipal Income Trust.", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 3, "stage_name": "Distribution", "phase": "3a", "phase_label": "Stage 3A \u00b7 Churning", "transition": "stage_3_churning", "transition_label": "Stage 3 range intact", "confidence": 57.68, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 41.872, "architecture_energy": 28.076, "architecture_maturity": 48.077, "architecture_confidence": 43.698, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 28.72, "rotation_up": 39.5, "upward_expansion": 64.64, "deceleration": 64.9, "rotation_down": 26.44, "downward_expansion": 16.97 }, "activity_lines": [ 6.381263, 6.392225, 6.319955, 6.275888 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.333333 }, "latest_close": 6.38, "trend_reference": 6.228861, "distance_from_trend": 0.024264, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 5.712014, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.116944, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -6.698089, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.031833, "excess_performance": -0.093792, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.024264, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.01928, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.116944, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005721, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.066981, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.004037, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.031833, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.29018, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 549338, "relative_activity": 1.096214, "balance": 1.29018, "dry_up": 0.921219, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024049, "annualized_volatility": 0.121855, "from_high_reference": -0.028357, "from_low_reference": 0.149388 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 6.228861, "fair_value_reference": 5.712014, "structural_low": 5.859619, "invalidation": "A decisive breakout above range resistance with renewed RS leadership invalidates the distribution reading; a range-low break confirms deterioration." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 22, "median_return": 0.002153, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.016558, "regime_survival": 0.681818, "best_return": 0.03707, "worst_return": -0.145796, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": -0.021396, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.050994, "regime_survival": 0.444444, "best_return": 0.083175, "worst_return": -0.192443, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.000378, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.085059, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.030563, "worst_return": -0.158398, "sufficient": true }, { 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"activity_lines": [ 6.40122, 6.387035, 6.305861, 6.265678 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 6.38, "volume": 549338, "typical_volume": 501123.1, "trend": 6.228861, "fair_value": 5.712014, "relative_strength": -6.698089, "stage": 3, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 41.872431, "energy": 28.076488, "activity_lines": [ 6.381263, 6.392225, 6.319955, 6.275888 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }