{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7eebb5cd-d0f2-4afc-b7c6-af425c5d3846", "symbol": "WTI2L", "name": "SG ETC Daily Long +2X WTI Oil Future", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 58.899, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Supply rotation", "architecture_gate": "mixed", "architecture_direction": -19.462, "architecture_energy": 18.67, "architecture_maturity": 61.814, "architecture_confidence": 62.464, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 44.47, "rotation_up": 44.18, "upward_expansion": 29.68, "deceleration": 45.74, "rotation_down": 25.3, "downward_expansion": 29.68 }, "activity_lines": [ 29.360001, 27.93991, 31.057262, 31.942706 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 24.77, "trend_reference": 30.442867, "distance_from_trend": -0.186345, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 21.948664, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.128543, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -10.400192, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.496134, "excess_performance": 0.325243, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.186345, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.176892, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.128543, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.652227, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.104002, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.704268, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.496134, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.397533, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 140, "relative_activity": 0.157356, "balance": 0.397533, "dry_up": 1.95993, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 1 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.2199, "annualized_volatility": 1.527442, "from_high_reference": -0.566352, "from_low_reference": 0.905385 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 30.442867, "fair_value_reference": 21.948664, "structural_low": 16.024, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.054815, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.052335, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.512958, "worst_return": -0.162838, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.040595, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.123577, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.109683, "worst_return": -0.13081, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.230731, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": 0.091657, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 1.008179, "worst_return": -0.158417, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, 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"2026-06-26", "close": 21.415001, "volume": 25, "typical_volume": 2059.95, "trend": 27.667934, "fair_value": 21.640535, "relative_strength": -17.034377, "stage": 3, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -30.006509, "energy": 39.113115, "activity_lines": [ 26.944, 32.286909, 34.914381, 32.233832 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-03", "close": 21.415001, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 2058.5, "trend": 27.8873, "fair_value": 21.664965, "relative_strength": -19.377123, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -31.747966, "energy": 54.562562, "activity_lines": [ 24.311334, 29.725091, 33.714819, 31.830417 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 25.575001, "volume": 315, "typical_volume": 2016.15, "trend": 28.281934, "fair_value": 21.716061, "relative_strength": -3.4366, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -26.08352, "energy": 58.502934, "activity_lines": [ 23.849001, 28.220091, 32.886843, 31.681237 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 29.365, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 2013.0, "trend": 28.814834, "fair_value": 21.791452, "relative_strength": 11.923113, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -24.788871, "energy": 52.704768, "activity_lines": [ 25.375001, 27.755728, 32.384453, 31.751112 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 34.215, "volume": 400, "typical_volume": 1218.55, "trend": 29.484667, "fair_value": 21.870811, "relative_strength": 29.434379, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 1.599677, "energy": 12.861166, "activity_lines": [ 28.633667, 28.317091, 32.292048, 32.09951 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 32.400002, "volume": 6035, "typical_volume": 990.0, "trend": 30.1158, "fair_value": 21.938536, "relative_strength": 20.922618, "stage": 2, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -4.211803, "energy": 12.671889, "activity_lines": [ 30.634668, 28.700546, 32.019405, 32.287596 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 24.77, "volume": 140, "typical_volume": 889.7, "trend": 30.442867, "fair_value": 21.948664, "relative_strength": -10.400192, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -19.4615, "energy": 18.669608, "activity_lines": [ 29.360001, 27.93991, 31.057262, 31.942706 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }