{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7eed2c4e-c43e-41ff-9aef-f70fcef0d58f", "symbol": "IDEV", "name": "ISHARES TRUST CORE MSCI INTERNATIONAL DEVELOPED MKTS", "exchange": "NYSEARCA", "country": "US", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 93.703, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 81.096, "architecture_energy": 67.86, "architecture_maturity": 35.812, "architecture_confidence": 82.661, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 14.97, "rotation_up": 65.41, "upward_expansion": 86.48, "deceleration": 47.54, "rotation_down": 17.05, "downward_expansion": 13.14 }, "activity_lines": [ 90.864, 90.064258, 89.089477, 88.048534 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 93.31, "trend_reference": 86.990018, "distance_from_trend": 0.072652, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 69.392979, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.344661, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.136004, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.077349, "excess_performance": -0.048276, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.072652, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.037488, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.344661, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.017482, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.00136, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.006047, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.077349, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.271505, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6931282, "relative_activity": 0.988466, "balance": 3.271505, "dry_up": 0.955745, "accumulation_observations": 6, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.024801, "annualized_volatility": 0.170565, "from_high_reference": -0.001071, "from_low_reference": 0.254812 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 86.990018, "fair_value_reference": 69.392979, "structural_low": 78.98513, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 37, "median_return": 0.014341, "positive_rate": 0.621622, "directional_follow_through": 0.621622, "median_excess_return": -0.003418, "regime_survival": 0.72973, "best_return": 0.057803, "worst_return": -0.070933, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 14, "median_return": 0.029641, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.029625, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.110692, "worst_return": -0.101871, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": 0.0362, "positive_rate": 0.714286, "directional_follow_through": 0.714286, "median_excess_return": -0.05279, "regime_survival": 0.428571, "best_return": 0.164601, "worst_return": -0.029612, "sufficient": true }, { 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"volume": 8081707, "typical_volume": 7246382.75, "trend": 86.666216, "fair_value": 69.150291, "relative_strength": 0.279678, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 63.313184, "energy": 42.274345, "activity_lines": [ 89.6, 89.285965, 88.508263, 87.619903 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 93.31, "volume": 6931282, "typical_volume": 7012160.75, "trend": 86.990018, "fair_value": 69.392979, "relative_strength": -0.136004, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 81.096425, "energy": 67.859767, "activity_lines": [ 90.864, 90.064258, 89.089477, 88.048534 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }