{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7eeee0e9-3acc-4611-bbea-760ed9114a44", "symbol": "CHARGE", "name": "ChargePanel AB (publ)", "exchange": "STO", "country": "SE", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^OMX", "stage": 1, "stage_name": "Basing", "phase": "1c", "phase_label": "Stage 1C \u00b7 Breakout watch", "transition": "stage_1_to_2_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 1 \u2192 2 watch", "confidence": 67.393, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 58.922, "architecture_energy": 29.761, "architecture_maturity": 24.298, "architecture_confidence": 54.598, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 49.27, "rotation_up": 49.8, "upward_expansion": 70.57, "deceleration": 61.8, "rotation_down": 19.68, "downward_expansion": 6.57 }, "activity_lines": [ 1.650333, 1.606727, 1.604381, 1.589043 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Stable", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.0 }, "latest_close": 1.82, "trend_reference": 1.5775, "distance_from_trend": 0.153724, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 1.835413, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.008398, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -3.511576, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.221477, "excess_performance": 0.159982, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.153724, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.008954, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.008398, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.180946, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.035116, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.089295, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.221477, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.61176, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 153965, "relative_activity": 0.458096, "balance": 0.61176, "dry_up": 0.654811, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.117498, "annualized_volatility": 0.463835, "from_high_reference": -0.19469, "from_low_reference": 0.450199 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 1.5775, "fair_value_reference": 1.835413, "structural_low": 1.33, "invalidation": "A renewed decline below the structural range low, widening the discount to current Fair Value while Trend falls, weakens the base diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.038028, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.038362, "regime_survival": 0.733333, "best_return": 0.13141, "worst_return": -0.162162, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.162703, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.109258, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.022857, "worst_return": -0.260638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": -0.255319, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.304912, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.331868, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": -0.24729, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.30446, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.117021, "worst_return": -0.611602, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-16", "end": "2023-09-15", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.196703, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-09-22", "end": "2024-08-23", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.43594, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-08-30", "end": "2024-11-29", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.260638, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-06", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.079137, "active": false }, { 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"modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -9.894959, "energy": 16.102591, "activity_lines": [ 1.520333, 1.576364, 1.576167, 1.572495 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 1.52, "volume": 93102, "typical_volume": 352711.8, "trend": 1.574, "fair_value": 1.858125, "relative_strength": -18.250592, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "down", "direction": -37.659649, "energy": 25.94205, "activity_lines": [ 1.516667, 1.559909, 1.572452, 1.569054 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 1.635, "volume": 350743, "typical_volume": 361124.55, "trend": 1.571167, "fair_value": 1.845905, "relative_strength": -12.357292, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": 0.972238, "energy": 4.109177, "activity_lines": [ 1.557667, 1.565091, 1.580048, 1.572989 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 1.82, "volume": 153965, "typical_volume": 336097.95, "trend": 1.5775, "fair_value": 1.835413, "relative_strength": -3.511576, "stage": 1, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 58.92202, "energy": 29.760576, "activity_lines": [ 1.650333, 1.606727, 1.604381, 1.589043 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }