{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ef1662b-d6ba-4735-86ed-02287facd459", "symbol": "603166", "name": "GUILIN FUDA Co.,Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -62.041, "architecture_energy": 74.588, "architecture_maturity": 19.279, "architecture_confidence": 83.04, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 22.84, "rotation_up": 8.91, "upward_expansion": 17.23, "deceleration": 37.13, "rotation_down": 70.73, "downward_expansion": 88.23 }, "activity_lines": [ 10.731333, 11.675455, 12.576166, 13.091635 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 11.63, "trend_reference": 13.944604, "distance_from_trend": -0.165986, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 10.325117, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.126379, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -22.126347, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.299771, "excess_performance": -0.256567, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.165986, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.054986, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.126379, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.348363, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.221263, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.055703, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.299771, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.075882, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 69533489, "relative_activity": 1.540091, "balance": 1.075882, "dry_up": 1.255057, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.146108, "annualized_volatility": 0.672135, "from_high_reference": -0.456346, "from_low_reference": 0.253233 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 13.944604, "fair_value_reference": 10.325117, "structural_low": 9.28, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 24, "median_return": 0.029385, "positive_rate": 0.541667, "directional_follow_through": 0.458333, "median_excess_return": 0.019681, "regime_survival": 0.75, "best_return": 0.188812, "worst_return": -0.123435, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.077204, "positive_rate": 0.625, "directional_follow_through": 0.375, "median_excess_return": 0.033985, "regime_survival": 0.375, "best_return": 0.553464, "worst_return": -0.181357, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.041702, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.04399, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 1.310975, "worst_return": -0.169118, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", 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"upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-11-07", "tenure": "Established", "return": -0.115385, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-11-14", "end": "2025-12-19", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.009498, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-12-26", "end": "2026-02-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.053266, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2026-02-13", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.015024, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-20", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.133508, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-03-27", "end": "2026-06-12", 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"relative_strength": -34.819133, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -79.17868, "energy": 84.347773, "activity_lines": [ 10.89, 12.225273, 12.955953, 13.47331 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 10.76, "volume": 52852007, "typical_volume": 43178474.5, "trend": 14.073087, "fair_value": 10.290365, "relative_strength": -26.514926, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -63.47006, "energy": 79.594824, "activity_lines": [ 10.556667, 11.838909, 12.716364, 13.249254 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 11.63, "volume": 69533489, "typical_volume": 45148935.9, "trend": 13.944604, "fair_value": 10.325117, "relative_strength": -22.126347, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Early contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -62.041024, "energy": 74.58796, "activity_lines": [ 10.731333, 11.675455, 12.576166, 13.091635 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }