{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7ef5ae93-0d06-4f0d-8096-5d2271286b8b", "symbol": "BEL", "name": "Bentley Capital Limited", "exchange": "ASX", "country": "AU", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^AXJO", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4b", "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -54.107, "architecture_energy": 60.733, "architecture_maturity": 100.0, "architecture_confidence": 67.071, "architecture_tenure": "Established", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation." }, "scores": { "balance": 19.76, "rotation_up": 28.0, "upward_expansion": 22.5, "deceleration": 67.0, "rotation_down": 47.76, "downward_expansion": 70.17 }, "activity_lines": [ 0.0114, 0.011218, 0.012143, 0.013385 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": -0.333333 }, "latest_close": 0.012, "trend_reference": 0.0154, "distance_from_trend": -0.220779, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 0.021218, "distance_from_fair_value": -0.434441, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -30.12017, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.478261, "excess_performance": -0.541967, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.220779, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.166065, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": false, "value": -0.434441, "read": "Below anchor" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.052998, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.301202, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.235283, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.478261, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.152296, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 0, "relative_activity": 0.0, "balance": 0.152296, "dry_up": 3.19585, "accumulation_observations": 1, "distribution_observations": 2 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.044872, "annualized_volatility": 0.5183, "from_high_reference": -0.666667, "from_low_reference": 0.2 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 0.0154, "fair_value_reference": 0.021218, "structural_low": 0.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 34, "median_return": -0.019167, "positive_rate": 0.294118, "directional_follow_through": 0.529412, "median_excess_return": -0.040232, "regime_survival": 0.882353, "best_return": 0.333333, "worst_return": -0.487179, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": -0.029762, "positive_rate": 0.416667, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.088018, "regime_survival": 0.666667, "best_return": 0.129032, "worst_return": -0.65, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": -0.04304, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.05976, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.681818, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 4, "median_return": -0.305403, "positive_rate": 0.25, "directional_follow_through": 0.75, "median_excess_return": -0.300268, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.5, "worst_return": -0.75, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2023-06-23", "end": "2023-08-18", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2023-08-25", "end": "2024-12-20", "tenure": "Extended", "return": -0.681818, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-12-27", "end": "2025-01-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-01-10", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.294118, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-02-21", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.166667, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-02-28", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-05-09", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.1, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-05-16", "end": "2025-06-20", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.384615, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-06-27", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.5, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2025-12-12", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.461538, "active": false }, { "regime": 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"typical_volume": 70672.5, "trend": 0.0164, "fair_value": 0.021878, "relative_strength": -32.634103, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -67.318942, "energy": 88.305698, "activity_lines": [ 0.011, 0.0114, 0.012786, 0.014301 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 0.01, "volume": 522166, "typical_volume": 87248.35, "trend": 0.016067, "fair_value": 0.021641, "relative_strength": -38.50559, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -92.352903, "energy": 84.447134, "activity_lines": [ 0.010667, 0.011018, 0.01241, 0.013888 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 0.012, "volume": 96447, "typical_volume": 77626.3, "trend": 0.015733, "fair_value": 0.021429, "relative_strength": -27.937775, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -65.624359, "energy": 67.191555, "activity_lines": [ 0.011067, 0.011091, 0.012267, 0.013626 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 0.012, "volume": 0, "typical_volume": 48391.9, "trend": 0.0154, "fair_value": 0.021218, "relative_strength": -30.12017, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -54.107486, "energy": 60.732637, "activity_lines": [ 0.0114, 0.011218, 0.012143, 0.013385 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }