{
  "ticker": {
    "uuid": "7ef63914-5929-457f-85ac-c184f297a079",
    "symbol": "00752",
    "name": "CTBC China 50",
    "exchange": "TAI",
    "country": "TW",
    "assetType": "etf"
  },
  "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.",
  "analysis": {
    "eligible": true,
    "as_of": "2026-08-07",
    "benchmark": "^TWII",
    "stage": 4,
    "stage_name": "Declining",
    "phase": "4b",
    "phase_label": "Stage 4B \u00b7 Declining",
    "transition": "stage_4_declining",
    "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact",
    "confidence": 96.0,
    "architecture_regime": "downward_expansion",
    "architecture_regime_label": "Downward Expansion",
    "architecture_modifier": "Established contraction",
    "architecture_gate": "down",
    "architecture_direction": -7.871,
    "architecture_energy": 22.827,
    "architecture_maturity": 97.382,
    "architecture_confidence": 41.392,
    "architecture_tenure": "Established",
    "architecture": {
      "interpretation": {
        "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding downward.",
        "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained negative alignment with weak price acceptance. Repair requires persistent improvement across the structure, not merely one strong observation."
      },
      "scores": {
        "balance": 50.07,
        "rotation_up": 44.77,
        "upward_expansion": 27.56,
        "deceleration": 41.31,
        "rotation_down": 16.65,
        "downward_expansion": 50.23
      },
      "activity_lines": [
        23.511333,
        22.811818,
        22.914238,
        23.330559
      ],
      "activity_state": "Moderate",
      "activity_direction": "Contracting",
      "rotation_direction": "Improving",
      "price_acceptance": 0.166667
    },
    "latest_close": 23.99,
    "trend_reference": 24.105,
    "distance_from_trend": -0.004771,
    "trend_direction": "Weakening",
    "fair_value": 21.455962,
    "distance_from_fair_value": 0.118104,
    "fair_value_direction": "Weakening",
    "relative_strength": -31.278129,
    "relative_strength_direction": "Improving",
    "price_momentum": -0.121245,
    "excess_performance": -0.500557,
    "evidence": [
      {
        "label": "Price vs Trend",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.004771,
        "read": "Below"
      },
      {
        "label": "Trend direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.053072,
        "read": "Falling"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price vs current Fair Value",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.118104,
        "read": "Premium"
      },
      {
        "label": "Fair Value direction",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.035114,
        "read": "Moving away"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.312781,
        "read": "Lagging"
      },
      {
        "label": "Relative strength direction",
        "positive": true,
        "value": 0.049172,
        "read": "Improving"
      },
      {
        "label": "Price momentum",
        "positive": false,
        "value": -0.121245,
        "read": "Negative"
      },
      {
        "label": "Volume balance",
        "positive": false,
        "value": 0.857487,
        "read": "Supply-led"
      }
    ],
    "volume": {
      "latest": 9155307,
      "relative_activity": 0.895589,
      "balance": 0.857487,
      "dry_up": 1.563197,
      "accumulation_observations": 4,
      "distribution_observations": 4
    },
    "risk": {
      "range_context": 0.046814,
      "annualized_volatility": 0.237854,
      "from_high_reference": -0.153792,
      "from_low_reference": 0.191162
    },
    "levels": {
      "trend_reference": 24.105,
      "fair_value_reference": 21.455962,
      "structural_low": 20.139999,
      "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired."
    },
    "outcomes": [
      {
        "horizon": "Near term",
        "sample_count": 26,
        "median_return": -0.015022,
        "positive_rate": 0.461538,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.538462,
        "median_excess_return": -0.038361,
        "regime_survival": 0.884615,
        "best_return": 0.138202,
        "worst_return": -0.120817,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Intermediate",
        "sample_count": 8,
        "median_return": -0.105549,
        "positive_rate": 0.375,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.625,
        "median_excess_return": -0.100042,
        "regime_survival": 0.625,
        "best_return": 0.163529,
        "worst_return": -0.198801,
        "sufficient": true
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Extended",
        "sample_count": 4,
        "median_return": -0.043329,
        "positive_rate": 0.5,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.5,
        "median_excess_return": -0.140588,
        "regime_survival": 0.25,
        "best_return": 0.098824,
        "worst_return": -0.236351,
        "sufficient": false
      },
      {
        "horizon": "Full cycle",
        "sample_count": 3,
        "median_return": 0.06,
        "positive_rate": 0.666667,
        "directional_follow_through": 0.333333,
        "median_excess_return": -0.164801,
        "regime_survival": 0.0,
        "best_return": 0.231513,
        "worst_return": -0.325114,
        "sufficient": false
      }
    ],
    "ledger": [
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        "regime": "rotation_up",
        "label": "Rotation Up",
        "color": "teal",
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        "end": "2024-05-10",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.17296,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
        "color": "green",
        "start": "2024-05-17",
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        "tenure": "Developing",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
        "color": "amber",
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        "tenure": "Established",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
        "label": "Upward Expansion",
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        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "deceleration",
        "label": "Deceleration",
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        "end": "2025-06-20",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": -0.024856,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_down",
        "label": "Rotation Down",
        "color": "orange",
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        "end": "2025-07-25",
        "tenure": "Developing",
        "return": 0.085404,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "balance",
        "label": "Balance",
        "color": "blue",
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        "end": "2025-08-08",
        "tenure": "New",
        "return": 0.006364,
        "active": false
      },
      {
        "regime": "rotation_up",
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      {
        "regime": "upward_expansion",
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      {
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      {
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      {
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        "active": true
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-24",
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        "trend": 24.256,
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        "relative_strength": -35.246074,
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-07-31",
        "close": 24.09,
        "volume": 28202459,
        "typical_volume": 10303817.65,
        "trend": 24.188667,
        "fair_value": 21.427115,
        "relative_strength": -30.01146,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -13.119476,
        "energy": 21.159792,
        "activity_lines": [
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      },
      {
        "date": "2026-08-07",
        "close": 23.99,
        "volume": 9155307,
        "typical_volume": 10222660.75,
        "trend": 24.105,
        "fair_value": 21.455962,
        "relative_strength": -31.278129,
        "stage": 4,
        "regime": "downward_expansion",
        "modifier": "Established contraction",
        "gate": "down",
        "direction": -7.870736,
        "energy": 22.826512,
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      }
    ],
    "method": {
      "price_basis": "completed market observations",
      "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.",
      "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.",
      "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.",
      "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read."
    }
  }
}