{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f01b607-1052-4e6c-9066-bdff67f09e7b", "symbol": "688718", "name": "Wave Cyber (Shanghai) Co., Ltd.", "exchange": "SHH", "country": "CN", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "000001.SS", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4a", "phase_label": "Stage 4A \u00b7 Breakdown", "transition": "stage_4_declining", "transition_label": "Stage 4 decline intact", "confidence": 77.196, "architecture_regime": "rotation_down", "architecture_regime_label": "Rotation Down", "architecture_modifier": "Structural failure", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": -60.762, "architecture_energy": 70.879, "architecture_maturity": 14.993, "architecture_confidence": 81.97, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The Activity Line structure is rotating downward.", "body": "Fast Activity is weakening relative to Slow Activity and price acceptance is deteriorating. Persistent negative Trend confirmation would establish Downward Expansion." }, "scores": { "balance": 20.75, "rotation_up": 11.24, "upward_expansion": 18.21, "deceleration": 34.26, "rotation_down": 72.6, "downward_expansion": 89.21 }, "activity_lines": [ 12.801333, 13.855273, 14.975476, 15.208409 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": -0.5 }, "latest_close": 13.55, "trend_reference": 15.266, "distance_from_trend": -0.112407, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 12.723681, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.064943, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": -9.156803, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": -0.068729, "excess_performance": -0.025525, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": false, "value": -0.112407, "read": "Below" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.005158, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.064943, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.340486, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.091568, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.24704, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.068729, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": false, "value": 0.771223, "read": "Supply-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 10180280, "relative_activity": 0.824871, "balance": 0.771223, "dry_up": 1.122747, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 5 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.157763, "annualized_volatility": 0.569775, "from_high_reference": -0.327543, "from_low_reference": 0.314258 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 15.266, "fair_value_reference": 12.723681, "structural_low": 10.31, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.040864, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.008604, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.112385, "worst_return": -0.030658, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.042299, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.036605, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.16208, "worst_return": -0.077481, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 2, "median_return": 0.013194, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": 0.030181, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.146789, "worst_return": -0.120401, "sufficient": false }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 1, "median_return": -0.365663, 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] }, { "date": "2026-07-10", "close": 15.0, "volume": 14368182, "typical_volume": 11879365.4, "trend": 15.382, "fair_value": 12.854956, "relative_strength": -2.163053, "stage": 2, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "up", "direction": 3.739764, "energy": 3.268248, "activity_lines": [ 15.966667, 16.150364, 16.232714, 15.934667 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 12.47, "volume": 18628036, "typical_volume": 12441418.55, "trend": 15.350333, "fair_value": 12.82638, "relative_strength": -13.513699, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Upper balance after advance", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -36.298034, "energy": 31.973455, "activity_lines": [ 14.746, 15.407273, 15.888619, 15.746796 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 11.63, "volume": 15429416, "typical_volume": 12645969.75, "trend": 15.284333, "fair_value": 12.78778, "relative_strength": -20.027682, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -47.593249, "energy": 59.132843, "activity_lines": [ 13.454667, 14.613273, 15.480667, 15.506774 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 12.36, "volume": 11188511, "typical_volume": 12352655.05, "trend": 15.250333, "fair_value": 12.7506, "relative_strength": -15.061458, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Supply rotation", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -40.441603, "energy": 63.753071, "activity_lines": [ 12.826667, 14.078182, 15.162238, 15.318107 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 13.55, "volume": 10180280, "typical_volume": 12341657.55, "trend": 15.266, "fair_value": 12.723681, "relative_strength": -9.156803, "stage": 4, "regime": "rotation_down", "modifier": "Structural failure", "gate": "down", "direction": -60.761741, "energy": 70.878571, "activity_lines": [ 12.801333, 13.855273, 14.975476, 15.208409 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }