{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f025eb0-8e65-4a47-8465-a7344a9aa9f1", "symbol": "SDJE50", "name": "Invesco EURO STOXX 50 UCITS ETF", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "etf" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Established expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 83.424, "architecture_energy": 73.353, "architecture_maturity": 32.272, "architecture_confidence": 84.001, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 11.73, "rotation_up": 61.08, "upward_expansion": 85.13, "deceleration": 55.06, "rotation_down": 22.65, "downward_expansion": 14.13 }, "activity_lines": [ 166.585335, 165.348728, 161.636096, 158.608431 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 170.479996, "trend_reference": 155.666667, "distance_from_trend": 0.095161, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 130.455962, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.306801, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -2.599305, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.111923, "excess_performance": -0.058969, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.095161, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.039691, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.306801, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.087445, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.025993, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.036587, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.111923, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 3.422633, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1984, "relative_activity": 0.179035, "balance": 3.422633, "dry_up": 0.505453, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.022795, "annualized_volatility": 0.168817, "from_high_reference": -0.001757, "from_low_reference": 0.264313 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 155.666667, "fair_value_reference": 130.455962, "structural_low": 137.559998, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 40, "median_return": 0.002864, "positive_rate": 0.525, "directional_follow_through": 0.525, "median_excess_return": -0.00812, "regime_survival": 0.825, "best_return": 0.105726, "worst_return": -0.087104, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 12, "median_return": 0.004606, "positive_rate": 0.583333, "directional_follow_through": 0.583333, "median_excess_return": -0.026172, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.129653, "worst_return": -0.061638, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 8, "median_return": 0.071371, "positive_rate": 0.875, "directional_follow_through": 0.875, "median_excess_return": -0.012931, "regime_survival": 0.625, "best_return": 0.114919, "worst_return": -0.168433, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": 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128.904423, "relative_strength": -4.956373, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 66.503799, "energy": 81.544507, "activity_lines": [ 164.161329, 161.788726, 157.485619, 155.567871 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 163.960007, "volume": 8174, "typical_volume": 13481.8, "trend": 153.970667, "fair_value": 129.2775, "relative_strength": -3.242195, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 64.56865, "energy": 76.082264, "activity_lines": [ 164.279999, 162.602182, 158.411143, 156.248344 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 163.880005, "volume": 6250, "typical_volume": 12860.5, "trend": 154.539334, "fair_value": 129.637244, "relative_strength": -3.034354, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 62.778332, "energy": 66.177003, "activity_lines": [ 164.172001, 163.206182, 159.296858, 156.887656 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 165.820007, "volume": 5997, "typical_volume": 11794.65, "trend": 155.088667, "fair_value": 130.030834, "relative_strength": -2.51525, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 67.618211, "energy": 55.822521, "activity_lines": [ 164.72267, 163.936729, 160.291049, 157.615442 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 170.479996, "volume": 1984, "typical_volume": 11081.65, "trend": 155.666667, "fair_value": 130.455962, "relative_strength": -2.599305, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Established expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 83.424169, "energy": 73.353318, "activity_lines": [ 166.585335, 165.348728, 161.636096, 158.608431 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }