{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f02a7cd-daa8-4f95-8d0c-ed22eae3b4c0", "symbol": "ECK", "name": "Ecosuntek S.p.A.", "exchange": "MIL", "country": "IT", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "FTSEMIB.MI", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2b", "phase_label": "Stage 2B \u00b7 Advancing", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 94.397, "architecture_regime": "deceleration", "architecture_regime_label": "Deceleration", "architecture_modifier": "Recompressing", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 39.091, "architecture_energy": 23.711, "architecture_maturity": 44.608, "architecture_confidence": 88.214, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The upward structure remains, but its energy is decelerating.", "body": "Trend remains positive, but Activity or price acceptance is losing strength. This can become a healthy recompression, a re-acceleration, or a Rotation Down." }, "scores": { "balance": 37.35, "rotation_up": 33.38, "upward_expansion": 60.01, "deceleration": 83.75, "rotation_down": 26.67, "downward_expansion": 19.01 }, "activity_lines": [ 3.245333, 3.262909, 3.241333, 3.087484 ], "activity_state": "Moderate", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Weakening", "price_acceptance": 0.5 }, "latest_close": 3.18, "trend_reference": 2.874667, "distance_from_trend": 0.106215, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 2.112728, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.505163, "fair_value_direction": "Weakening", "relative_strength": 5.03705, "relative_strength_direction": "Weakening", "price_momentum": 0.292683, "excess_performance": 0.121791, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.106215, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.132948, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.505163, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.202535, "read": "Moving away" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.05037, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.259312, "read": "Weakening" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.292683, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.000604, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 41654, "relative_activity": 0.075298, "balance": 1.000604, "dry_up": 0.08923, "accumulation_observations": 0, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.074988, "annualized_volatility": 0.362807, "from_high_reference": -0.096591, "from_low_reference": 0.630769 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 2.874667, "fair_value_reference": 2.112728, "structural_low": 2.08, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.02459, "positive_rate": 0.619048, "directional_follow_through": 0.619048, "median_excess_return": 0.02272, "regime_survival": 0.571429, "best_return": 0.19688, "worst_return": -0.103687, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.036036, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.052413, "regime_survival": 0.222222, "best_return": 0.260745, "worst_return": -0.04717, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.106121, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.041016, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.245902, "worst_return": -0.115207, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.419799, "positive_rate": 1.0, "directional_follow_through": 1.0, "median_excess_return": 0.128857, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.481132, "worst_return": 0.076503, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2024-12-13", "end": "2025-02-07", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101124, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-02-14", "end": "2025-03-28", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.018018, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2025-04-04", "end": "2025-04-25", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.14658, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2025-05-02", "end": "2025-06-06", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.01676, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-06-13", "end": "2025-08-08", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.059404, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-08-15", "end": "2025-09-05", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.195935, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-12", "end": "2025-10-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.131122, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-10-17", "end": "2026-01-23", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.0625, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-01-30", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.101563, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-04-10", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.176991, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-04-17", "end": "2026-06-12", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.006711, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-06-19", "end": "2026-07-03", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.024242, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2026-07-10", "end": "2026-07-31", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-08-07", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.0, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 1.885, "volume": 23800, "typical_volume": 65065.0, "trend": 1.922333, "fair_value": 1.115827, "relative_strength": 10.711323, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "mixed", "direction": -10.314902, "energy": 10.909857, 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52606, "typical_volume": 551474.35, "trend": 2.815333, "fair_value": 2.095644, "relative_strength": 14.589719, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 57.859659, "energy": 37.324634, "activity_lines": [ 3.284, 3.272364, 3.208286, 3.034753 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 3.3, "volume": 46508, "typical_volume": 552329.75, "trend": 2.847333, "fair_value": 2.104587, "relative_strength": 12.608263, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Re-accelerating", "gate": "up", "direction": 54.604385, "energy": 33.468522, "activity_lines": [ 3.282667, 3.278909, 3.232762, 3.066022 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 3.18, "volume": 41654, "typical_volume": 553187.45, "trend": 2.874667, "fair_value": 2.112728, "relative_strength": 5.03705, "stage": 2, "regime": "deceleration", "modifier": "Recompressing", "gate": "up", "direction": 39.091441, "energy": 23.711416, "activity_lines": [ 3.245333, 3.262909, 3.241333, 3.087484 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }