{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f03f35f-4619-40e5-b181-b07963f2d2f7", "symbol": "III", "name": "Imperial Metals Corporation", "exchange": "TOR", "country": "CA", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "^GSPTSE", "stage": 4, "stage_name": "Declining", "phase": "4c", "phase_label": "Stage 4C \u00b7 Repair watch", "transition": "stage_4_to_1_watch", "transition_label": "Stage 4 \u2192 1 repair watch", "confidence": 69.699, "architecture_regime": "balance", "architecture_regime_label": "Balance", "architecture_modifier": "Balance after decline", "architecture_gate": "down", "architecture_direction": 12.411, "architecture_energy": 17.114, "architecture_maturity": 17.516, "architecture_confidence": 76.57, "architecture_tenure": "New", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "Directional pressure has compressed into balance.", "body": "Trend and Activity are compressed into balance, so neither side has durable control. Prior structure and the next directional change provide context; balance alone is not assumed to be a base." }, "scores": { "balance": 58.84, "rotation_up": 36.55, "upward_expansion": 30.93, "deceleration": 46.17, "rotation_down": 15.19, "downward_expansion": 41.59 }, "activity_lines": [ 7.611333, 7.33, 7.096143, 7.389032 ], "activity_state": "Compressed", "activity_direction": "Contracting", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.166667 }, "latest_close": 8.55, "trend_reference": 8.177, "distance_from_trend": 0.045616, "trend_direction": "Weakening", "fair_value": 4.250513, "distance_from_fair_value": 1.011522, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": -0.092585, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": -0.264832, "excess_performance": -0.385254, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.045616, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": false, "value": -0.051282, "read": "Falling" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 1.011522, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.370431, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": false, "value": -0.000926, "read": "Lagging" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.188459, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": false, "value": -0.264832, "read": "Negative" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 1.439122, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 1447600, "relative_activity": 1.597422, "balance": 1.439122, "dry_up": 1.220412, "accumulation_observations": 2, "distribution_observations": 3 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.106253, "annualized_volatility": 0.671397, "from_high_reference": -0.389722, "from_low_reference": 1.045455 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 8.177, "fair_value_reference": 4.250513, "structural_low": 6.01, "invalidation": "Reclaiming a flat-to-rising Trend with improving relative strength is required before the declining diagnosis is repaired." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 15, "median_return": -0.033482, "positive_rate": 0.333333, "directional_follow_through": 0.333333, "median_excess_return": -0.036026, "regime_survival": 0.466667, "best_return": 0.152074, "worst_return": -0.114833, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 7, "median_return": -0.13486, "positive_rate": 0.142857, "directional_follow_through": 0.142857, "median_excess_return": -0.096275, "regime_survival": 0.285714, "best_return": 0.060185, "worst_return": -0.229412, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 5, "median_return": 0.0553, "positive_rate": 0.6, "directional_follow_through": 0.6, "median_excess_return": 0.023036, "regime_survival": 0.0, "best_return": 0.185841, "worst_return": -0.333333, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full cycle", "sample_count": 3, "median_return": 0.066986, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": -0.127145, "regime_survival": 0.333333, "best_return": 0.071749, "worst_return": -0.354911, "sufficient": false } ], "ledger": [ { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2024-06-21", "end": "2024-07-05", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.061135, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-07-12", "end": "2024-10-04", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.042056, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2024-10-11", "end": "2024-12-13", "tenure": "Developing", "return": -0.146018, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2024-12-20", "end": "2025-02-14", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.238342, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_up", "label": "Rotation Up", "color": "teal", "start": "2025-02-21", "end": "2025-03-07", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.065041, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-03-14", "end": "2025-07-18", "tenure": "Established", "return": 0.8, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2025-07-25", "end": "2025-08-29", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.067285, "active": false }, { "regime": "upward_expansion", "label": "Upward Expansion", "color": "green", "start": "2025-09-05", "end": "2026-02-27", "tenure": "Established", "return": 1.003883, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-03-06", "end": "2026-03-27", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.18313, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-04-03", "end": "2026-04-17", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.006188, "active": false }, { "regime": "deceleration", "label": "Deceleration", "color": "amber", "start": "2026-04-24", "end": "2026-05-01", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.063114, "active": false }, { "regime": "rotation_down", "label": "Rotation Down", "color": "orange", "start": "2026-05-08", "end": "2026-05-15", "tenure": "New", "return": -0.003175, "active": false }, { "regime": "downward_expansion", "label": "Downward Expansion", "color": "red", "start": "2026-05-22", "end": "2026-07-24", "tenure": "Developing", "return": 0.116279, "active": false }, { "regime": "balance", "label": "Balance", "color": "blue", "start": "2026-07-31", "end": "2026-08-07", "tenure": "New", "return": 0.1875, "active": true } ], "chart_path": [ { "date": "2023-08-18", "close": 2.4, "volume": 55400, "typical_volume": 142095.0, "trend": 1.995, "fair_value": 3.302628, "relative_strength": 15.318547, "stage": 1, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early 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"activity_lines": [ 7.046, 6.853455, 6.986571, 7.626043 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 6.92, "volume": 1030800, "typical_volume": 967595.0, "trend": 8.431333, "fair_value": 4.15359, "relative_strength": -15.320995, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -34.932521, "energy": 20.953895, "activity_lines": [ 7.019333, 6.893273, 6.943857, 7.523978 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 7.2, "volume": 841500, "typical_volume": 950480.0, "trend": 8.351, "fair_value": 4.183718, "relative_strength": -12.496635, "stage": 4, "regime": "downward_expansion", "modifier": "Established contraction", "gate": "down", "direction": -21.063828, "energy": 15.980606, "activity_lines": [ 7.092667, 6.972727, 6.944, 7.444538 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 7.2, "volume": 1103900, "typical_volume": 931980.0, "trend": 8.259333, "fair_value": 4.212692, "relative_strength": -12.548826, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": -20.221201, "energy": 12.524965, "activity_lines": [ 7.159333, 7.035455, 6.952762, 7.37028 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 8.55, "volume": 1447600, "typical_volume": 906210.0, "trend": 8.177, "fair_value": 4.250513, "relative_strength": -0.092585, "stage": 4, "regime": "balance", "modifier": "Balance after decline", "gate": "down", "direction": 12.410979, "energy": 17.113728, "activity_lines": [ 7.611333, 7.33, 7.096143, 7.389032 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }