{ "ticker": { "uuid": "7f042d33-d13d-4e5d-a236-5b57a34d7373", "symbol": "OC", "name": "Owens Corning Inc", "exchange": "NYSE", "country": "US", "assetType": "equity" }, "methodBoundary": "Trend Architecture is a weekly structural classification, not a forecast, probability of return, recommendation or execution signal. Confidence measures geometric agreement and external confirmation only.", "analysis": { "eligible": true, "as_of": "2026-08-07", "benchmark": "SPY", "stage": 2, "stage_name": "Advancing", "phase": "2c", "phase_label": "Stage 2C \u00b7 Late advance", "transition": "stage_2_healthy", "transition_label": "Stage 2 trend intact", "confidence": 96.0, "architecture_regime": "upward_expansion", "architecture_regime_label": "Upward Expansion", "architecture_modifier": "Early expansion", "architecture_gate": "up", "architecture_direction": 80.025, "architecture_energy": 60.3, "architecture_maturity": 34.0, "architecture_confidence": 83.069, "architecture_tenure": "Developing", "architecture": { "interpretation": { "headline": "The weekly architecture is expanding upward.", "body": "Trend and Activity show sustained positive alignment with constructive price acceptance. Directional energy remains positive; cooling within this regime can indicate that it is maturing." }, "scores": { "balance": 10.82, "rotation_up": 66.78, "upward_expansion": 82.41, "deceleration": 54.3, "rotation_down": 16.41, "downward_expansion": 9.07 }, "activity_lines": [ 146.458635, 142.74201, 134.352635, 129.316453 ], "activity_state": "Wide", "activity_direction": "Expanding", "rotation_direction": "Improving", "price_acceptance": 0.666667 }, "latest_close": 157.1, "trend_reference": 125.136347, "distance_from_trend": 0.255431, "trend_direction": "Improving", "fair_value": 143.078288, "distance_from_fair_value": 0.098, "fair_value_direction": "Improving", "relative_strength": 11.534081, "relative_strength_direction": "Improving", "price_momentum": 0.165885, "excess_performance": 0.04026, "evidence": [ { "label": "Price vs Trend", "positive": true, "value": 0.255431, "read": "Above" }, { "label": "Trend direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.078719, "read": "Rising" }, { "label": "Price vs current Fair Value", "positive": true, "value": 0.098, "read": "Premium" }, { "label": "Fair Value direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.24066, "read": "Closing upward" }, { "label": "Relative Strength vs benchmark", "positive": true, "value": 0.115341, "read": "Leading" }, { "label": "Relative strength direction", "positive": true, "value": 0.262173, "read": "Improving" }, { "label": "Price momentum", "positive": true, "value": 0.165885, "read": "Positive" }, { "label": "Volume balance", "positive": true, "value": 2.057625, "read": "Demand-led" } ], "volume": { "latest": 6019763, "relative_activity": 1.069022, "balance": 2.057625, "dry_up": 0.830912, "accumulation_observations": 4, "distribution_observations": 0 }, "risk": { "range_context": 0.079062, "annualized_volatility": 0.413397, "from_high_reference": -0.012049, "from_low_reference": 0.63393 }, "levels": { "trend_reference": 125.136347, "fair_value_reference": 143.078288, "structural_low": 98.84, "invalidation": "A sustained loss of Trend, followed by flattening structure and weakening relative strength, challenges the advancing diagnosis." }, "outcomes": [ { "horizon": "Near term", "sample_count": 21, "median_return": 0.018335, "positive_rate": 0.666667, "directional_follow_through": 0.666667, "median_excess_return": 0.010796, "regime_survival": 0.714286, "best_return": 0.146282, "worst_return": -0.164521, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Intermediate", "sample_count": 9, "median_return": 0.037259, "positive_rate": 0.777778, "directional_follow_through": 0.777778, "median_excess_return": 0.022597, "regime_survival": 0.555556, "best_return": 0.266074, "worst_return": -0.208905, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Extended", "sample_count": 6, "median_return": 0.082876, "positive_rate": 0.5, "directional_follow_through": 0.5, "median_excess_return": -0.041892, "regime_survival": 0.5, "best_return": 0.287561, "worst_return": -0.299685, "sufficient": true }, { "horizon": "Full 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"volume": 5072632, "typical_volume": 6570443.65, "trend": 121.057987, "fair_value": 142.70996, "relative_strength": 2.419736, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 69.991563, "energy": 76.015929, "activity_lines": [ 139.586099, 132.299373, 125.607505, 123.426016 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-17", "close": 143.105465, "volume": 4983007, "typical_volume": 6342233.75, "trend": 122.064248, "fair_value": 142.834472, "relative_strength": 4.734147, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 68.479008, "energy": 78.174261, "activity_lines": [ 142.203867, 135.146716, 127.775379, 124.848434 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-24", "close": 142.34, "volume": 4017793, "typical_volume": 6018883.95, "trend": 123.071283, "fair_value": 142.89476, "relative_strength": 5.167061, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 65.101143, "energy": 75.524569, "activity_lines": [ 143.122115, 137.465147, 129.765933, 126.156547 ] }, { "date": "2026-07-31", "close": 138.9, "volume": 3695211, "typical_volume": 5804176.15, "trend": 123.950178, "fair_value": 142.930138, "relative_strength": 1.85291, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 60.730834, "energy": 52.917612, "activity_lines": [ 141.899272, 138.644306, 131.269855, 127.177755 ] }, { "date": "2026-08-07", "close": 157.1, "volume": 6019763, "typical_volume": 5631095.2, "trend": 125.136347, "fair_value": 143.078288, "relative_strength": 11.534081, "stage": 2, "regime": "upward_expansion", "modifier": "Early expansion", "gate": "up", "direction": 80.025192, "energy": 60.299955, "activity_lines": [ 146.458635, 142.74201, 134.352635, 129.316453 ] } ], "method": { "price_basis": "completed market observations", "trend": "Trend provides the primary directional reference.", "fair_value": "Fair Value provides long-term price context and is not a forecast or target.", "relative_strength": "Relative Strength shows leadership or lagging performance against the market benchmark.", "classification": "The SM framework combines Trend, Activity, Fair Value, Relative Strength and participation into a structural read." } } }